Future regional climatic changes and their hydrologic, ecological and economic consequences: Northern Caucasus case study
Gennady V. MenzhulinCenter for International Environmental Cooperation of Russian Academy of Sciences (INENCO RAS), 14 Nab. Kutuzova, St. Petersburg, 191187 RussiaM.Kh. ShkhanukovWater Problems Institute of Uzbek Academy of Sciences, 25a Fazyl Khodjaev, Tashkent, 700000 UzbekistanV.A. KhaydarovaState Hydrological Institute (SHI), 23 Second Line, St. Petersburg, 199053 RussiaV.A. KucherovaKabardin-Balkarian State University, 173 Chernysevskiy St., Nalchik, 360004 RussiaN.V. PenkovaKabardin-Balkarian State University, 173 Chernysevskiy St., Nalchik, 360004 Russia
ABI
Abstract
Methodological approaches are suggested which allow approximate forecasts to be made for regional water resources, withdrawals and consumptive water use for the coming decades. For the purpose of estimation of volumes and effectiveness of water use and availability the techniques by numerical models based on the methodology of economic cybernetics are developed. Examples of estimations are given for Southern Russia especially the Northern Caucasus Region as territory with a typical socio-economic development. These regions are analogues to other marginal areas, most industrialised and populated in the droughty zone of the former Soviet Union.
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