Long-term forecasts of water availability in small foothill rivers of Uzbekistan
Abstract
Abstract This article presents the obtained results of the application of integrated hydrological models. Observed data and simulations diverge especially during the period when the maximum flow rates are observed. This is mainly due to the parameters of climate and soil, which are taken into account when checking sensitivity to unknown values. To increase the accuracy of the results, the selection method is used, and the analysis of the results. Outcomes show that the correlation coefficient is more than 60%. However, it is possible to enhance this connection. For this, it is necessary to change the sensitivity parameters to unknown values several times and restart the models. The simulation results of the high water period are smoother than the observed values. It refers, to maximum water discharges; even integrated models face difficulties in taking account of all the factors that form the surface runoff. Therefore, the hydrologic models that are applying nowadays have to be improved and developed for better outcomes.