FORECASTING THE DYNAMICS OF COTTON YIELD IN THE FERGHANA REGION
Abstract
Observations of a certain phenomenon, the nature of which changes over time, give rise to an ordered sequence, which is called a time series. In the article, using the method of statistical time series analysis, statistical pattern of time series Y1 – average yield of cotton in Fergana region of the Republic of Uzbekistan(on materials of CSB of the Republic of Uzbekistan for 1991-2018 years). Point and interval estimates for the average cotton yield were constructed with a 95% guarantee, explicit types of trends were determined, and the yield in the region was predicted for subsequent years. Using statistical criteria of Durbin-Watson, it was found that the average yield of cotton in the region has an autocorrelation dependence.The used methods of processing and analysis of dynamic series after testing can be used in the research of masters and researchers.