Forecasting macroeconomic indicators at the stage of transition to inflation targeting policy in Uzbekistan

Abstract

In this paper, forecasted the main macroeconomic indicators, such as inflation, economic growth, nominal wages, money supply and exchange rate in the context of the transition to inflation targeting policy in Uzbekistan. The medium-term forecasting covers the periods from Q1 2022 to Q4 2024 using AR, VAR, ARIMA and DF models. Also, the accuracy of the forecasting model results checked by MSE, MAE and MAPE methods. Furthermore, developed conclusions and suggestions based on forecast results.

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Identifiers

DOI

10.55439/eit/vol10_iss5/a30

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