Tax policy of Ukraine during martial law: threats and prospects for increasing tax revenues
Abstract
This article examines the peculiarities of Ukraine's tax policy under martial law, identifies the main threats to fiscal stability, and assesses key challenges in budget revenue collection. The impact of war on the structure of tax revenues, tax administration mechanisms, and the degree of import dependence of the fiscal system is analysed. The necessity of revising existing approaches to VAT administration, reforming the simplified taxation system, and introducing tax incentives for economic recovery is substantiated. Purpose. The objective of the study is to analyse the key risks and challenges of Ukraine's tax policy under martial law and propose measures for its optimization, aimed at increasing tax revenues, eliminating imbalances in the tax system, and creating preconditions for economic recovery. Methodology. The research employs a systematic analysis of tax revenue dynamics, a structural analysis of tax policy, and a factor analysis of the impact of wartime risks on the effectiveness of the tax system. Empirical assessment is based on official statistical data regarding the structure of tax revenues and macroeconomic indicators. Results. The study identifies critical challenges for Ukraine’s tax system, including a significant reduction in the tax base, inefficiencies in the VAT refund mechanism, imbalances in the taxation structure, and the misuse of the simplified tax system for tax minimization. Measures for optimizing tax policy are proposed, including reforms in VAT administration, strengthening tax control over third-group sole proprietors, improving customs policy, and introducing differentiated tax rates to stimulate domestic production.