Article

Scenario Forecasting of Uzbekistan's Export Demand to Russia Using a VECM Framework

Bakhtiyor IslamovTashkent State University of Economics, Tashkent, UzbekistanМуниса ТурдибаеваWestminster International University in Tashkent, Tashkent, UzbekistanAshurali Khudaynazarov

2024en

ABI

Abstract

This paper analyzes scenario forecasts of exports of the Republic of Uzbekistan to the Russian Federation using a vector error correction model based on monthly series of macroeconomic data for the period 2013-2022. This model takes into account structural breaks associated with the liberalization of the foreign ex-change market, COVID-19 pandemic, and Russia-Ukraine conflict. The model includes also a set of exogenously defined variables such as the gold and oil world prices.

Topics

Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Market Dynamics and Volatility Global Trade and Competitiveness

Identifiers

DOI: 10.1145/3726122.3726295

Citations and references

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