Time-varying dynamics of energy and sustainability uncertainty
Abstract
This article examines the link between energy-related uncertainty and sustainability uncertainty by utilizing monthly data from November 2002 to October 2022. To this aim, wavelet coherence and time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) methodologies are utilized. Wavelet coherence results uncover statistically significant long-term correlation between energy and sustainability uncertainties, particularly during periods of global economic crises. The time-varying responses reveal that the impact of energy-related uncertainty shocks is positive over the analysis period. The impacts of energy-related uncertainty are found to be more pronounced during the turbulent periods, such as the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The time-varying impact of global economic activity on the sustainability uncertainty does not follow a stable trajectory, and it is not statistically significant. The time-varying impact of financial stress on the sustainability uncertainty is not stable, including both positive and negative effects over the analysis period. The results generally reveal the complex interconnections between energy markets, economic conditions, and sustainability issues. This evidence highlights the importance of policymakers taking these connections into account when formulating strategies for energy security and sustainable development, particularly during periods of global economic uncertainty.