RETRACTED: Assessing spatiotemporal trends and drivers of livestock methane emissions in China: A spatial econometric analysis
Abstract
China’s livestock sector is a critical contributor to national greenhouse gas emissions, particularly methane (CH 4 ), due to the scale and structure of ruminant farming. However, existing research has inadequately addressed how spatial transformations and regional development disparities influence livestock-related CH 4 emissions across time. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics and structural drivers of livestock CH 4 emissions across 30 Chinese provinces over the extended period of 2005 to 2024, applying an improved spatial Durbin panel model integrated with updated IPCC Tier 2 inventory methodology. The primary objective is to quantify CH 4 emissions from enteric fermentation and manure management, while assessing the effects of regional economic structures, livestock composition, land use patterns, and policy-induced industrial shifts. Our analysis identifies four key findings: (1) National CH 4 emissions from livestock peaked in 2011 and declined modestly by 2024, but regional disparities widened, with Western and Southwestern China (e.g., Xinjiang, Yunnan) becoming major emission zones due to intensified ruminant production; (2) Eastern coastal regions such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang show decoupling of economic growth and livestock CH 4 emissions, driven by urbanization and livestock relocation; (3) Spatial spillover effects are statistically significant, especially in Inner Mongolia and Gansu, suggesting interprovincial influence of livestock structure on CH 4 outputs; (4) Industrial upgrading, pasture expansion, and shifts toward monogastric livestock correlate with lower per-unit CH 4 emissions, confirming the moderating effect of agro-industrial transformation. The study concludes that differentiated, region-specific mitigation strategies—such as concentrating cattle farming in low-emission zones and supporting sustainable feeding systems—are essential to harmonise rural economic development with national carbon neutrality goals.