AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND DISPOSABLE INCOME GROWTH IN UZBEKISTAN: EVIDENCE FROM REGIONAL PANEL DATA
Abstract
This study examines the impact of agricultural growth on disposable income growth across 13 regions of Uzbekistan over the period 2011–2024 using balanced panel data comprising 182 observations. The empirical analysis applies panel data estimation techniques, including fixed-effects, random-effects, and Driscoll–Kraay estimators, to account for heteroskedasticity, serial correlation, cross-sectional dependence, and common time effects. The results reveal a positive and statistically significant relationship between agricultural growth and disposable income growth. The preferred specification indicates that a one percentage-point increase in agricultural output growth is associated with an approximately 0.31 percentage-point increase in regional disposable income growth. In addition, the inclusion of year fixed effects substantially improved the explanatory power of the model, highlighting the important role of nationwide macroeconomic conditions in shaping regional income dynamics during the study period. Overall, the findings suggest that agricultural development remains an important contributor to regional income growth and rural welfare in Uzbekistan.