TURIZM DETERMINANTLARI VA ULARNING IQTISODIY O‘SISHGA TA’SIRI: O‘ZBEKISTON MISOLIDA EMPIRIK TAHLIL
Abstract
This article empirically investigates the determinants of inbound tourism in Uzbekistan and the contribution of tourism to economic growth. Annual data for 2012–2023 are analysed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing framework of Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001). The bounds test F-statistic of 7.701 exceeds the upper critical bound of 3.79 at the 5% significance level, confirming a long-run cointegrating relationship. The error-correction coefficient of −0.6424 indicates approximately 64% annual adjustment toward equilibrium. The long-run elasticity of tourist arrivals on GDP is estimated at 0.0075, consistent with the tourism-led growth hypothesis. Trade openness and exchange rate are the most significant growth channels. The paper contributes to the empirical literature on Uzbekistan and provides policy recommendations for tourism and exchange rate management.