Optimizing wheat production under climate change in Jiangsu Province, China: A multi-scenario socio-economic assessment
Abstract
Global climate change is posing a critical threat to future food security, so there is an urgent need to develop climate-resilient agricultural strategies to sustain wheat production, especially in vulnerable regions. This study evaluates the potential impacts of future climate scenarios on wheat yield using APSIM, which was calibrated using field data from the 2023–2024 growing season and validated using an independent dataset from the 2024–2025 growing season. Scenario simulations were conducted under two climate change scenarios (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5) from CMIP6 dataset, varying plant densities (PD100–PD300), nitrogen doses (N 0 –N 240 ), and sowing strategies, FSD (fixed sowing day) vs. VSD (variable sowing days) to identify best the option to sustain future wheat yield. Results revealed substantial reductions in future wheat yield compared with the baseline (2023–2024 season). Low nitrogen applications (N 0 –N 40 ) resulted in substantial yield losses (30.3–57.1%), whereas the moderate to high nitrogen (N 80 –N 240 ) rates limited reductions (9.1–20.0%). Plant density responses varied with climate and nitrogen regimes; PD100–PD200 consistently showed better adaptation. Notably, VSD enabled 13–15 days earlier sowing and increased wheat yield by 3.4–6.1%. Economic analysis demonstrated that benefit-cost ratio (BCR) increased from 0.28 to 0.34 at N 0 to 2.16–2.51 at N 240 , while net profit increased from −451 to 1087 USD ha −1 . However, marginal net profit declined substantially at higher nitrogen rates, indicating diminishing economic returns beyond the optimum range. Overall, nitrogen rates between N 160 and N 200 provided the most practical balance between profitability and fertilizer-use efficiency. In conclusion, this study highlights the importance of optimized nitrogen application (N 160 –N 200 ), moderate plant densities (PD100–PD200) and flexible sowing strategies (VSD) to sustain wheat production and profitability under future climatic conditions.