Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production
Senthold AssengAgricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611, USAFrank EwertInstitute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn 53115, GermanyPierre MartreBlaise Pascal University, UMR1095 GDEC, F-63 170 Aubière, FranceReimund P. RötterPlant Production Research, MTT Agrifood Research Finland, FI-50100 Mikkeli, FinlandDavid B. LobellDepartment of Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305, USADavide CammaranoAgricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611, USABruce A. KimballUSDA, Agricultural Research Service, US Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, Maricopa, Arizona 85138, USAMichael J. OttmanThe School of Plant Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721, USAGerard W. WallUSDA, Agricultural Research Service, US Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, Maricopa, Arizona 85138, USAJeffrey W. WhiteUSDA, Agricultural Research Service, US Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, Maricopa, Arizona 85138, USAMatthew ReynoldsCIMMYT Int. Adpo, D.F. Mexico 06600, MexicoPhillip D. AldermanCIMMYT Int. Adpo, D.F. Mexico 06600, MexicoP. V. Vara PrasadDepartment of Agronomy, Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas 66506, USAPramod AggarwalCGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Water Management Institute, New Delhi-110012, IndiaJakarat AnothaiBiological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Prosser, Washington 99350-8694, USABruno BassoW.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University East Lansing, Michigan 48823, USAChristian BiernathInstitute of Soil Ecology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, D-85764, GermanyAndrew J. ChallinorInstitute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UKGiacomo De SanctisJordi DoltraElías FereresIAS-CSIC and University of Cordoba, Apartado 3048, 14080 Cordoba, SpainMargarita García‐VilaIAS-CSIC and University of Cordoba, Apartado 3048, 14080 Cordoba, SpainSebastian GaylerWESS-Water & Earth System Science Competence Cluster, c/o University of Tübingen, 72074 Tübingen, GermanyGerrit HoogenboomBiological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Prosser, Washington 99350-8694, USAL. A. HuntDepartment of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario N1G 2W1, CanadaR. C. IzaurraldeDepartment of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland 20742, USA,Mohamed JablounDepartment of Agroecology, Aarhus University, 8830 Tjele, DenmarkCurtis D. JonesDepartment of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland 20742, USA,Kurt Christian KersebaumInstitute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, 15374 Müncheberg, GermanyA-K. KoehlerInstitute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UKChristoph MüllerPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, GermanySoora Naresh KumarCentre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, IARI PUSA, New Delhi 110 012, IndiaClaas NendelInstitute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, 15374 Müncheberg, GermanyGarry J. O’LearyJørgen E. OlesenDepartment of Agroecology, Aarhus University, 8830 Tjele, DenmarkTaru PalosuoPlant Production Research, MTT Agrifood Research Finland, FI-50100 Mikkeli, FinlandEckart PriesackInstitute of Soil Ecology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, D-85764, GermanyEhsan Eyshi RezaeiInstitute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn 53115, GermanyA. C. RuaneNASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York 10025, USAMikhail A. SemenovComputational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Herts AL5 2JQ, UKIurii ShcherbakDepartment of Geological Sciences, Michigan State University East Lansing, Michigan 48823, USAClaudio StöckleBiological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington 99164-6120, USAPierre StratonovitchComputational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Herts AL5 2JQ, UKThilo StreckInstitute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, 70599 Stuttgart, GermanyIwan SupitPlant Production Systems & Earth System Science, Wageningen University, 6700AA Wageningen, The NetherlandsFulu TaoInstitute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100101, ChinaPeter J. ThorburnCSIRO Agriculture Flagship, Dutton Park, Queensland 4102, AustraliaKatharina WahaPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, GermanyEnli WangCSIRO Agriculture Flagship, Black Mountain, ACT 2601, AustraliaDaniel WallachINRA, UMR 1248 Agrosystèmes et développement territorial (AGIR), 31326 Castanet-Tolosan Cedex, FranceJ. WolfPlant Production Systems & Earth System Science, Wageningen University, 6700AA Wageningen, The NetherlandsZhigan ZhaoCSIRO Agriculture Flagship, Black Mountain, ACT 2601, AustraliaYan ZhuCollege of Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095, China
2014en
ABI
Abstract
Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 32 °C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each °C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.
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