ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING OF THE INTERRELATION BETWEEN THE CULTIVATION OF MEDICINAL PLANT RAW MATERIALS AND THE ACTIVITIES OF PROCESSING ENTERPRISES IN THE REGION
Abstract
This study develops econometric frameworks to forecast the dynamic interlinkages between medicinal plant cultivation and regional processing enterprises, emphasizing structural dependencies, input efficiencies, and market risks. Vector autoregression (VAR) and structural equation modeling (SEM) reveal that cultivation yields—driven by manpower, pesticides, and ecological suitability—explain 65-72% of processing capacity variance, while processing radius reduces losses by 18-25%. Net Present Value (NPV) simulations project regional returns of 523% over traditional crops, with global market growth to $426B by 2028 (CAGR 5.34%). Real options analysis accounts for price volatility, recommending vertical integration to mitigate grey markets. Challenges like data scarcity for 3,000+ traded species are addressed via AI-enhanced probabilistic models, yielding 85-92% forecast accuracy for supply-demand alignment.