ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF THE INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY SECTOR: EVIDENCE FROM SURKHANDARYA REGION, UZBEKISTAN
Abstract
This paper presents an econometric analysis of the information and communication technology (ICT) sector in the Surkhandarya region of Uzbekistan, focusing on its key determinants and growth dynamics. Using annual data for the period 2014–2022, the study applies a log-linear multiple regression model to assess the impact of internet penetration, ICT investment, sectoral employment, and mobile network density on the ICT sector’s contribution to gross regional product (GRP). The empirical results indicate that internet penetration and ICT investment are the most significant drivers of sectoral growth, while employment and mobile density also exert positive and statistically significant effects. The model demonstrates a high explanatory power, confirming strong relationships between the variables. In addition, Granger causality analysis reveals a bidirectional relationship between ICT investment and economic output. Based on the estimated model, forecast scenarios for 2023–2027 suggest a steady increase in the ICT sector’s share in GRP under continued investment and digital expansion. The findings provide important insights for regional digital development policy and highlight the role of ICT in supporting economic growth in peripheral regions.