ANALYSIS OF THE OBSERVED AND SIMULATED WHEAT YIELD DATA UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE IN TASHKENT REGION

Tashkent region in Uzbekistan is an area that is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This area is already one of the most arid and water-scarce regions in the world. Climate change is predicted to exacerbate these challenges, particularly through increasing temperatures, decreasing rainfall, and more frequent extreme weather events. AquaCrop is an efficient tool that has been used to simulate various crops, including wheat, under different environmental conditions. The model considers crop physiology and water use efficiency, allowing it to predict crop yield under different water and temperature regimes. In this research AquaCrop crop model was tested in Bekabad district of Tashkent region. The model was calibrated based on the collected secondary agricultural data and climate indicators. Wheat yield indicators for 1998-2016 were compared based on observed data and simulation results. AquaCrop crop model predicted the wheat yield obtained in 1998-2016 in Bekobad with an error of 4.69 c/ha. In this case, the absolute error of the average indicator is 9 c/ha, the average squared error is 0.7 c/ha and the Pearson correlation is 0.65c/ha.

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