EPIDEMIOLOGY AND FORECAST FOR THE INCIDENCE OF ONCOLOGICAL DISEASES, LUNG AND BRONCHIAL CANCER

Objectives. To study the main indicators of the incidence of oncological diseases, including lung and bronchial cancer, and to determine their prognosis in the Republic of Uzbekistan. Material and methods. The research materials were the main statistical indicators on cancer, including malignant neoplasms of the bronchi and lung in the Republic of Uzbekistan for the period 2010-2022. The research methods used were mathematical statistics, graphical method, method of simple small squares, trends, multifactor mathematical modeling, systematization of nonlinear processes in medicine in software methods and reasoning methods. Results. Having studied the epidemiology of cancer for 2010–2022, we can assume that the absolute number of newly diagnosed patients in the forecast for 2026 will be 28,609 cases; the incidence rate per 100,000 population is 75.4, the absolute number of lethal outcomes is 17,037 people. The mortality rate was found to be 44.9 patients per 100,000 population. At the end of the estimated reporting year, the indicators for 2026 are: the absolute number of patients will be 141,641 people, and the morbidity rate per 100,000 population will be 373.5 people. By 2026, the number of permanent residents of the Republic of Uzbekistan is expected to be 37 million 916 people. According to the results of an analysis of the epidemiology of lung and bronchial cancer for 2011–2022, it was established that the forecast for the absolute number of newly diagnosed patients in 2026 will be 1,816 people, this figure will be 4.8 persons per 100,000 inhabitants, and at the end of the reporting period – 3,107 people, also the incidence rate per 100,000 population is 8.2, the predicted absolute number of lethal outcomes will make up 1,429 people. It has been established that the morbidity forecast rate will be 3.8 patients per 100,000 population. Conclusions. Based on the above, we can conclude that oncological diseases, including lung and bronchial cancer, tend to incidence increase in the Republic of Uzbekistan, thanks to improved detection by primary care medical workers, improving diagnostic and treatment standards. The reason for this growth is also the increase in the number of permanent residents of the Republic of Uzbekistan.

Перевод пока недоступен