Nutrient Runoff Assessment in Agricultural Lands Using the MIKE SHE Simulation Framework

Accurate assessment of nutrient runoff in farming regions is crucial for managing watersheds and preserving water quality. This study uses the MIKE SHE integrated hydrological modeling system to simulate and evaluate the nutrient runoff behavior across agricultural watersheds with different land uses and climate conditions. The model was calibrated and validated against long-term hydrometeorological and water quality datasets, thus assuring its reliability in modeling surface runoff, subsurface flow, and nutrient transport. Historical climate data from 1980 to 2020, along with land use change, were evaluated for their impacts on nutrient exports using a combination of runoff reduction techniques and spatial regression. Findings indicate that intensively fertilized zones are major contributors to nitrate and phosphorus loading, especially during the peak rainfall season. Analyses of various scenarios show that certain land use changes, such as converting forests and wetlands to farmland, dramatically increase nutrient runoff, while some conservation measures, notably the implementation of buffer strips and wetland restoration, should reduce hydrological nutrient export. In addition, the results demonstrated that the projected impacts of climate change worsen nutrient loss through runoff as a result of intensified precipitation and increased soil saturation.The MIKE SHE system works well for understanding the interplay of water, nutrients, and biological systems as it relates to nutrient pollution. This makes it helpful in evaluating policies and managing programs aimed at agricultural watershed nutrient pollution.

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