Climate change and glacier degradation in the Pskem River Basin (Western Tien Shan)

This study examines the spatiotemporal changes of glaciers in the Pskem River Basin under the conditions of global and regional climate change. The primary objective is to provide a quantitative assessment of the rate and extent of glacier degradation from 1968 to 2024, to identify morphological and aspect-related patterns of glacial retreat, and to analyze their impact on the hydrological regime and land use transformation in the study region. The methodological framework includes the interpretation of aerial photographs and multispectral satellite imagery (Landsat, Sentinel), spatial analysis within a GIS environment using digital elevation models (DEMs), as well as a comprehensive climatic and hydrological assessment based on long-term meteorological and hydrological station data. Spatial modeling of glacier degradation was performed using ArcGIS tools and specialized terrain and vegetation analysis modules. The results show that over the past 50 years, the total glacier area has decreased by 33.2 %, with the highest rate of retreat observed in the past two decades. Cirque, hanging, and slope glaciers located on southern and southeastern aspects were found to be particularly vulnerable. The ablation zone has shifted upward by 15–20 meters. Key consequences include an increase in summer runoff and a decline in water availability during the autumn months. Diagrams illustrating glacier degradation and area change dynamics have been visualized. The scientific novelty of this work lies in its integrated assessment of the spatiotemporal dynamics of glaciers in the Western Tien Shan using modern remote sensing and geoinformation technologies. The results are of high practical relevance for water resource forecasting, environmental planning, and the development of adaptive strategies for sustainable land use in the mountain ecosystems of Uzbekistan.

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