Uzbekistan's Foreign Trade Strategy: Economic Analysis of WTO and EAEU Directions

The article examines how Uzbekistan’s participation in international trade agreements can influence national economic performance. The focus is placed on two alternative integration trajectories, accession to the World Trade Organization and the expansion of cooperation with the Eurasian Economic Union. The analysis considers how these trajectories may affect GDP dynamics, sectoral composition, and labour-market outcomes, with particular attention to agriculture, industry, and unemployment. The objective is to assess and compare the potential economic effects of Uzbekistan’s WTO accession and deeper EAEU cooperation by estimating their associations with GDP, structural shifts between agriculture and industry, and changes in unemployment. The study applies an econometric modelling approach. Gross domestic product is specified as the dependent variable. The independent variables include the unemployment rate, selected agricultural indicators, the share of industry, a WTO integration factor, and an EAEU cooperation factor. These integration factors are operationalized as indicators capturing the presence and intensity of engagement with the respective trade frameworks. The calculations suggest that Uzbekistan’s GDP could increase by approximately 0.16% following WTO accession. The results also indicate that trade agreements are associated with structural changes in the economy, including shifts in the balance between agriculture and industry and measurable effects on employment processes. Overall, the findings support the conclusion that the choice of integration pathway can have macroeconomic relevance beyond trade flows, affecting sectoral ratios and labour-market conditions. Further research should test the robustness of these estimates using alternative model specifications and dynamic frameworks, including lag structures and scenario-based simulations. Future studies should also refine the measurement of integration intensity, incorporate additional control variables such as investment, productivity, exchange rates, and external demand, and extend the analysis to distributional effects across regions and social groups. A sector-specific assessment of competitiveness and import dependence would further clarify the conditions under which trade liberalization yields sustained growth gains.

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