Assessing the Impact of Covid-19 on the Chinese Economy: A Comprehensive Analysis

This paper examines the macroeconomic impact of the COVID-19 shock on the Chinese economy through a multidimensional policy-modeling framework. The Massive Contagious Infectious Diseases Simulator (ECMCID-Simulator) employs macroeconomic indicators to examine how asymmetric infection dynamics propagate economic shocks across activity, labor, financial markets, investment flows, and aggregate output within strategic economic sectors during 2019–2021. The ECMCID-Simulator is constructed under the Omnia Mobilis assumption and interpreted through the Dynamic Imbalanced State framework. Key findings reveal pronounced heterogeneity in economic responses, with sharp contractions in contact-intensive activities alongside relative resilience in essential production systems. The ECMCID-Simulator conceptualizes pandemic-induced economic disruptions as dynamic economic waves rather than static shocks. The ECMCID-Simulator offers policy-relevant insights into the management of systemic economic risk and the design of targeted stabilization strategies under conditions of extreme uncertainty.

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