Morphological Variation in Pinus oocarpa in the Sierra Madre Del Sur, Mexico: Seed Transfer Zoning Under Climate Change
Аннотация
Pinus oocarpa Schiede ex Schltdl. is the most important resin-producing conifer in Mexico, yet its morphological variation and seed transfer guidelines remain poorly defined for the Sierra Madre del Sur (SMS). This study evaluated variation in cone, seed, fascicle sheath, and needle traits, analyzed their associations with geographic and climatic factors, and delineated altitudinal seed zones and assisted migration distances. Most variation occurred among individual trees, with smaller but significant components among populations and provenances. All traits differed significantly among populations, provenances, and trees (p ≤ 0.0325), except for cone length, which showed no significant differences among populations (p = 0.0714). Multivariate analyses at both tree and provenance levels identified two differentiated population groups within the SMS. Several traits, including needle thickness, seed size, cone length, and seed weight, showed significant associations with environmental gradients. To realign provenances with projected climates for the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s, upward altitudinal shifts of 165, 255, and 400 m are required. These findings support the implementation of a modified climate-adjusted provenancing strategy to reduce maladaptation risks and enhance climate resilience in reforestation and restoration programs.