Policy Brief: Fragmentation-Aware QRA for Road & Transport Infrastructure

Traditional rockfall risk assessments for transport infrastructure have historically relied upon deterministic evaluations, typically focusing on a single "worst-case" or "most-probable" block size. In the modern context of complex mountain lifelines, this approach is fundamentally flawed and no longer sufficient. Relying on a solitary design block fails to account for the physical reality that a rock face produces a continuum of possible release volumes, each with distinct frequencies and propagation behaviours. As a matter of policy and professional liability, infrastructure managers must transition to a modern, multi-scenario probabilistic framework. Within this framework, risk is not defined by a solitary event but is viewed as an "expectation over all scenarios." By integrating across all plausible magnitudes and intensities, Public Administrations can eliminate the dangerous complacency of the deterministic approach. Failure to adopt this time-integrated formulation risks not only the misallocation of limited public funds but also significant legal exposure should a non-modelled scenario result in loss of life. In this Policy Brief strategies to quantify and manage rockfall risk on road and transport infrastructure are proposed.

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