Statistical and spatial evaluation of mining-induced seismicity using GIS

Purpose. This study investigates the seismicity of North Rhine-Westphalia in western Germany, focusing on the tectonically active Lower Rhine Embayment and the surrounding Rhenish lignite mining district. It aims to characterize spatial, temporal, and magnitude-related patterns of seismicity and to assess the influence of both natural and anthropogenic factors. Methodology. A catalog of 626 earthquake events recorded between 1970 and 2026 was obtained from an open-access database, including information on earthquake magnitude, focal depth, geographic location, and occurrence time. The study applies descriptive statistical analysis, GIS-based spatial statistics, and frequency-magnitude analysis. Nearest neighbor analysis and kernel density estimation were used to examine spatial patterns, while temporal variations and the Gutenberg-Richter relationship were analyzed to assess seismic trends. Results. The findings indicate that seismic activity in the study area is dominated by low-to-moderate magnitude earthquakes, with a mean magnitude of 2.73 and with focal depths predominantly within the upper crust. Most events occur at depths between 0 and 15 km, reflecting predominantly shallow seismic processes. Spatial analysis reveals a clustered distribution of earthquake epicenters, with a nearest neighbor index of 0.73, and kernel density estimation identifies several zones of elevated seismic activity. Temporal analysis reveals fluctuations in earthquake occurrence, alternating between periods of increased and reduced activity. The Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relationship exhibits a clear linear trend with a b-value of 1.019, indicating a predominance of low-magnitude events. Originality. This study integrates long-term seismic records with GIS-based spatial statistical methods to provide a comprehensive assessment of seismicity in North Rhine-Westphalia, highlighting the combined effects of tectonic structures and mining-induced activities. Practical Significance. The results contribute to a better understanding of regional seismic hazards and provide valuable insights for risk assessment, land-use planning, and the management of mining-related seismic hazards.

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