Статья

Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-years for 32 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2015

Christina FitzmauriceDivision of Hematology, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle2Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleChristine A. AllenInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleRyan M BarberInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleLars BarregårdUniversity of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, SwedenZulfiqar A BhuttaAga Khan University, PakistanHermann BrennerGerman Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg, GermanyDaniel DickerInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleOdgerel Chimed‐OchirUniversity of Occupational and Environmental Health, Fukuoka, JapanRakhi DandonaPublic Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, IndiaLalit DandonaInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleTom FlemingInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleMohammad H. ForouzanfarInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleJamie HancockInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleRoderick J. HayInternational Foundation for Dermatology, London, EnglandRachel Hunter‐MerrillInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleChantal HuynhInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleHung Chak HoDepartment of Epidemiology and Population Health, Global Health Center, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, New York, New YorkCatherine O. JohnsonInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleJost B JonasDepartment of Ophthalmology, Ruprecht-Karls-University Heidelberg, Mannheim, GermanyJagdish KhubchandaniBall State University, Muncie, IndianaG Anil KumarPublic Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, IndiaMichael KutzInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleQing LanNational Cancer Institute, Rockville, MarylandHeidi J. LarsonLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, EnglandXiaofeng LiangChinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, ChinaStephen S LimInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleAlan D LopezSchool of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, AustraliaMichael F MacIntyreInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleLaurie B. MarczakInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleNeal MarquezInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleAli H. MokdadInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleChristine PinhoInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleFarshad PourmalekUniversity of British Columbia, Vancouver, British ColumbiaJoshua A. SalomonDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard University, Cambridge, MassachusettsJuan SanabriaSchool of Medicine, Marshall University, Huntington, West VirginiaLogan SandarInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleBenn SartoriusUniversity of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South AfricaStephen M. SchwartzFred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WashingtonKatya Anne ShackelfordInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleKenji ShibuyaUniversity of Tokyo, Tokyo, JapanJeffrey D StanawayInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleCaitlyn SteinerInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleJiandong SunQueensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, AustraliaKen TakahashiUniversity of Occupational and Environmental Health, Kitakyushu, Fukuoka, JapanStein Emil VollsetNorwegian Institute of Public Health, Bergen, NorwayTheo VosInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleJoseph A. WagnerInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleHaidong WangInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleRonny WestermanFederal Institute for Population Research, Hessen, GermanyHajo ZeebLeibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology, Bremen, GermanyLeo ZoecklerInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleFoad Abd-AllahDepartment of Neurology, Cairo University, Cairo, EgyptMuktar Beshir AhmedCollege of Health Sciences, Department of Epidemiology, Jimma University, Jimma, EthiopiaSamer AlabedCollege of Health Sciences, Department of Epidemiology, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, EnglandNoore AlamQueensland Health Herston, Brisbane, Queensland, AustraliaSaleh Fahed AldhahriDepartment of Otolaryngology–Head and Neck Surgery, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi ArabiaGirma AlemDebre Markos University, Debre Markos, EthiopiaMulubirhan Assefa AlemayohuSchool of Public Health, Mekelle University, Mekelle, EthiopiaRaghib AliCancer Epidemiology Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford, EnglandRajaa Al‐RaddadiPublic Health Directorate, Department of Preventive Medicine, Ministry of Health, Jeddah, Makkah, Saudi ArabiaAzmeraw T. AmareSchool of Medicine, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia37Bahir Dar University, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Bahir Dar, EthiopiaYaw Ampem AmoakoDepartment of Medicine, Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital Ghana, Kumasi, GhanaAl ArtamanDepartment of Community Health Science, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, CanadaHamid AsayeshDepartment of Medical Emergency, School of Paramedic, Qom University of Medical Sciences, Qom, IranNiguse Tadele AtnafuCollege of Medicine and Health Sciences, Department of Nursing, Mizan Tepi University, Mizan Teferi, EthiopiaAshish AwasthiDepartment of Biostatistics, Nayati Multi Super Speciality Hospital, Mathura, IndiaHuda Ba SaleemDepartment of Community Medicine, Aden Cancer Registry, and Research Center Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Aden University, Aden, YemenAleksandra BaraćClinic for Infectious and Tropical Diseases, Clinical Center of Serbia, Faculty of Medicine University of Belgrade, Belgrade, SerbiaNeeraj BediDepartment of Epidemiology, Tropical Disease Unit, College of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Jazan, Saudi ArabiaIsabela M. BenseñorDepartment of Internal Medicine, University of São Paul, São Paul, BrazilAdugnaw BerhaneCollege of Health Sciences, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia)Eduardo BernabéDivision of Population and Patient Health, King’s College London Dental Institute, London, EnglandBalem Demtsu BetsuMekelle University, Tigray, EthiopiaAgnès BinagwahoUniversity of Global Health Equit, Kigali, Rwanda51Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Cambridge, MassachusettsDube Jara BoneyaDebre Markos University, Debre Markos, EthiopiaIsmael Campos‐NonatoNational Institute of Public Health, Morelos, MexicoCarlos A Castañeda-OrjuelaInstituto Nacional de Salud Bogota, Bogota, ColombiaFerrán Catalá-LópezDepartment of Medicine, University of Valencia/INCLIVA Health Research Institute and CIBERSAM, Valencia, Spain55Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, CanadaPeggy Pei-Chia ChiangClinical Governance Unit, Gold Coast Health, Southport, Queensland, AustraliaChioma ChibuezeNational Center for Child Health and Development, Tokyo, JapanAbdulaal ChitheerMinistry of Health, Baghdad, IraqJee-Young Jasmine ChoiSeoul National University Hospital, Seoul, South KoreaBenjamin CowieWHO Collaborating Centre for Viral Hepatitis, Doherty Institute, Melbourne, AustraliaSolomon Abrha DamtewSchool of Public Health, College of Health Sciences and Medicine, Wolaita Sodo University, Wolaita Sodo, Ethiopia)José das Nevesi3S–Instituto de Investigação e Inovação em Saúde, University of Porto, Porto, PortugalSuhojit DeyIndian Institute of Public Health–Delhi, Public Health Foundation of India, Gurgaon, IndiaSamath Dhamminda DharmaratneDepartment of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri LankaPreet K. DhillonCentre for Chronic Conditions and Injuries, Public Health Foundation of India, Gurgaon, IndiaEric L. DingDepartment of Nutrition, Harvard University, Boston, MassachusettsTim DriscollSydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, AustraliaDonatus U. EkwuemeDivision of Cancer Prevention and Control, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, GeorgiaAman Yesuf EndriesArba Minch University, Arba Minch, EthiopiaMaryam S. FarvidDepartment of Nutrition, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts71Harvard/MGH Center on Genomics, Vulnerable Populations, and Health Disparities, Mongan Institute for Health Policy, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MassachusettsFarshad FarzadfarNon-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, IranJoão Carlos FernandesCenter for Biotechnology and Fine Chemistry–Associate Laboratory, Faculty of Biotechnology, Catholic University of Portugal, Porto, PortugalFlorian FischerBielefeld University, Bielefeld, GermanyTsegaye Tewelde G/hiwotDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Jimma University, Jimma, EthiopiaAlemseged Aregay GebruMekelle University, Mekelle, EthiopiaSameer Vali GopalaniGovernment of the Federated States of Micronesia, Palikir, Federated States of MicronesiaAlemayehu HailuAddis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

JAMA Oncologyjournal2016en

ABI

Аннотация

IMPORTANCE: Cancer is the second leading cause of death worldwide. Current estimates on the burden of cancer are needed for cancer control planning. OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 32 cancers in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. EVIDENCE REVIEW: Cancer mortality was estimated using vital registration system data, cancer registry incidence data (transformed to mortality estimates using separately estimated mortality to incidence [MI] ratios), and verbal autopsy data. Cancer incidence was calculated by dividing mortality estimates through the modeled MI ratios. To calculate cancer prevalence, MI ratios were used to model survival. To calculate YLDs, prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights. The YLLs were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the reference life expectancy. DALYs were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Countries were categorized by SDI quintiles to summarize results. FINDINGS: In 2015, there were 17.5 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.7 million deaths. Between 2005 and 2015, cancer cases increased by 33%, with population aging contributing 16%, population growth 13%, and changes in age-specific rates contributing 4%. For men, the most common cancer globally was prostate cancer (1.6 million cases). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer was the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs in men (1.2 million deaths and 25.9 million DALYs). For women, the most common cancer was breast cancer (2.4 million cases). Breast cancer was also the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs for women (523 000 deaths and 15.1 million DALYs). Overall, cancer caused 208.3 million DALYs worldwide in 2015 for both sexes combined. Between 2005 and 2015, age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 174 of 195 countries or territories. Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) for all cancers combined decreased within that timeframe in 140 of 195 countries or territories. Countries with an increase in the ASDR due to all cancers were largely located on the African continent. Of all cancers, deaths between 2005 and 2015 decreased significantly for Hodgkin lymphoma (-6.1% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), -10.6% to -1.3%]). The number of deaths also decreased for esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, and chronic myeloid leukemia, although these results were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: As part of the epidemiological transition, cancer incidence is expected to increase in the future, further straining limited health care resources. Appropriate allocation of resources for cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and curative and palliative care requires detailed knowledge of the local burden of cancer. The GBD 2015 study results demonstrate that progress is possible in the war against cancer. However, the major findings also highlight an unmet need for cancer prevention efforts, including tobacco control, vaccination, and the promotion of physical activity and a healthy diet.

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Темы

Global Cancer Incidence and Screening Multiple and Secondary Primary Cancers Frailty in Older Adults

Идентификаторы

DOI: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2016.5688

Цитирования и источники

Цитирований: 4Использованных источников: 0

Показатели — AkademScholar