Regional-scale analysis of high-mountain multi-hazard and risk indicators in the Pamir (Tajikistan) with GRASS GIS

Abstract. We present a model framework for the regional-scale analysis of high-mountain multi-hazard and -risk indicators, implemented with the open-source software package GRASS GIS. This framework is applied to a 98 300 km2 study area centred in the Pamir (Tajikistan). It includes (i) rock slides, (ii) ice avalanches, (iii) periglacial debris flows and (iv) lake outburst floods. First, a hazard indicator is assigned to each relevant object (steep rock face, glacier or periglacial slope, lake). This indicator depends on the susceptibility and on the possible event magnitude. Second, the possible travel distances, impact areas and, consequently, impact hazard indicators for all types of processes are computed using empirical relationships. The impact hazard indicators are finally superimposed with an exposure indicator derived from the type of land use, resulting in a raster map of risk indicators finally discretized at the community level. The analysis results are presented and discussed at different spatial scales. The major outcome of the study, a set of comprehensive regional-scale hazard and risk indication maps, shall represent an objective basis for the prioritization of target communities for further research and risk mitigation measures.

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