Статья

Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Emma NicholsInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAJaimie D SteinmetzInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAStein Emil VollsetInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAKai FukutakiInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAJulian ChalekInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAFoad Abd-AllahInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAAmir AbdoliInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAAhmed AbualhasanInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAEman Abu‐GharbiehInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USATayyaba AkramInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAHanadi Al HamadInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAFares AlahdabInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAFahad AlaneziInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAVahid AlipourInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USASami AlmustanyirInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAHubert AmuInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAIman AnsariInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAJalal ArablooInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USATahira AshrafInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAThomas Astell‐BurtInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAGetinet AyanoInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAJosé Luís Ayuso‐MateosInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAAtif Amin BaigInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAAnthony BarnettInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAAmadou BarrowInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USABernhard T. BauneInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAYannick BéjotInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAWoldesellassie BezabheInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAYihienew Mequanint BezabihInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAAkshaya Srikanth BhagavathulaInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USASonu BhaskarInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAKrittika BhattacharyyaInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAAli BijaniInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAAtanu BiswasInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USASrinivasa Rao BollaInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAArchith BoloorInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USACarol BrayneInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAHermann BrennerInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAKatrin BurkartInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USARichard A. BurnsInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USALuis Alberto CámeraInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAChao CaoInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAFélix CarvalhoInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USALuís Fernando Silva Castro-de-AraujoInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAFerrán Catalá-LópezInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAEster CerinInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAPrachi P. ChavanInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USANicolas CherbuinInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USADinh‐Toi ChuInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAVera Marisa CostaInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USARosa A S CoutoInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAOmid DadrasInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAXiaochen DaiInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USALalit DandonaInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USARakhi DandonaInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAVanessa De la Cruz‐GóngoraInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USADeepak DhamnetiyaInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USADiana Dias da SilvaInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USADaniel DíazInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAAbdel DouiriInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USADavid EdvardssonInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAMichael EkholuenetaleInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAIman El SayedInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAShaimaa I El-JaafaryInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAKhalil EskandariInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USASharareh EskandariehInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USASaman EsmaeilnejadInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAJawad FaresInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAAndré FaroInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAUmar FarooqueInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAValery L. FeiginInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAXiaoqi FengInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USASeyed‐Mohammad FereshtehnejadInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAEduarda FernandesInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAPietro FerraraInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAIrina FilipInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAHoward FillitInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAFlorian FischerInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAShilpa GaidhaneInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USALucia GalluzzoInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAAhmad GhashghaeeInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USANermin GhithInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAAlessandro GialluisiInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USASyed Amir GilaniInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAIonela-Roxana GlăvanInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAE. V. GnedovskayaInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAMahaveer GolechhaInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USARajeev GuptaInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAVeer Bala GuptaInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAVivek GuptaInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAMohammad Rifat HaiderInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USABrian J. HallInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USASamer HamidiInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAAsif HanifInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAGraeme J. HankeyInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAShafiul HaqueInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USARisky Kusuma HartonoInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAAhmed I HasaballahM. Tasdik HasanInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USAAmr HassanInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USA

2022en

ABI

Аннотация

BACKGROUND: Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors. METHODS: We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis. FINDINGS: We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4-65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8-175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [-7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64-1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52-1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41-67]) and western Europe (74% [58-90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329-403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323-395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia. INTERPRETATION: Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures.

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Идентификаторы

DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(21)00249-8

Цитирования и источники

Цитирований: 3Использованных источников: 0

Показатели — AkademScholar