Статья

An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China

Huaiyu TianState Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, ChinaYonghong LiuState Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, ChinaYidan LiState Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, ChinaChieh‐Hsi WuSchool of Mathematical Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UKБин ЧэнDepartment of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, USAMoritz U. G. KraemerBoston Children’s Hospital, Boston, MA, USABingying LiState Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, ChinaJun CaiMinistry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, ChinaBo XuMinistry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, ChinaQiqi YangState Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, ChinaBen WangState Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, ChinaPeng YangBeijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing, ChinaYujun CuiState Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, ChinaYimeng SongDepartment of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong, Hong KongPai ZhengDepartment of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Peking University, ChinaQuanyi WangBeijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing, ChinaOttar N. BjørnstadCenter for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USARuifu YangState Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, ChinaBryan T. GrenfellDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USAOliver G. PybusDepartment of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UKChristopher DyeDepartment of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

2020en

ABI

Аннотация

Responding to an outbreak of a novel coronavirus [agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)] in December 2019, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January 2020 and implemented a national emergency response. We investigated the spread and control of COVID-19 using a data set that included case reports, human movement, and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown was associated with the delayed arrival of COVID-19 in other cities by 2.91 days. Cities that implemented control measures preemptively reported fewer cases on average (13.0) in the first week of their outbreaks compared with cities that started control later (20.6). Suspending intracity public transport, closing entertainment venues, and banning public gatherings were associated with reductions in case incidence. The national emergency response appears to have delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, averting hundreds of thousands of cases by 19 February (day 50).

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Идентификаторы

DOI: 10.1126/science.abb6105

Цитирования и источники

Цитирований: 3Использованных источников: 0

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