Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates
Chuang ZhaoSino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;Bing LiuAgricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611;Shilong PiaoCenter for Excellence in Tibetan Earth Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China;Xuhui WangSino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;David B. LobellDepartment of Earth System Science Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;Yao HuangState Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100093, China;Mengtian HuangSino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;Yitong YaoSino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;Simona BassuDesertification Research Centre, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy;Philippe CiaisLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Le Commissariat à l’Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives, CNRS, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, France;J. L. DurandUnité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, CS 80006, 86600 Lusignan, France;Joshua ElliottColumbia University Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025;Frank EwertInstitute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn, Bonn 53115, Germany;Ivan A. JanssensDepartment of Biology, University of Antwerp, 2610 Wilrijk, Belgium;Tao LiInternational Rice Research Institute, Los Baños, 4031 Laguna, Philippines;Erda LinAgro-Environment and Sustainable Development Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;Qiang LiuSino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;Pierre MartreUMR Laboratoire d’Ecophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress Environementaux, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Montpellier SupAgro, 34060 Montpellier, France;Christoph MüllerClimate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;Shushi PengSino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;Josep PeñuelasCentre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals, Cerdanyola del Valles, Barcelona 08193, Catalonia, Spain;Alex C. RuaneColumbia University Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025;Daniel WallachTao WangCenter for Excellence in Tibetan Earth Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China;Donghai WuSino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;Zhuo LiuSino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;Yan ZhuJiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095;Zaichun ZhuSino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;Senthold AssengAgricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611;
2017en
ABI
Аннотация
Significance Agricultural production is vulnerable to climate change. Understanding climate change, especially the temperature impacts, is critical if policymakers, agriculturalists, and crop breeders are to ensure global food security. Our study, by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods, shows that independent methods consistently estimated negative temperature impacts on yields of four major crops at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops, with important implications for developing crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure future food supply of an increasing world population.
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