Climate change-induced vulnerability assessment for the Florida Coast using hybrid machine learning models

• Florida's coastlines confront escalating threats from climate change, increasing sea levels, and extreme weather events. • The InVEST model evaluated Florida's coastal vulnerability, emphasizing significantly exposed areas such as Miami. • Natural habitats such as mangroves and seagrasses minimize ecological risk along Florida's coastline. • The study recommends "green-gray" infrastructure, integrating natural and engineered solutions promotes coastal resilience. Florida’s coastal regions are increasingly at risk due to environmental challenges, particularly those stemming from climate change, rising sea levels (SLR), and severe weather events like hurricanes. With a coastline stretching 1,350 miles along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, these coastal areas are vital to the state’s economy, generating roughly $102 billion each year and supporting 1.7 million jobs, mainly through tourism, recreational fishing, and boating. However, they face considerable strain from both natural and human-related influences. To evaluate this vulnerability, we employed the InVEST model, which utilizes the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) methodology, considering crucial factors such as coastal shape, water depth, elevation, wave patterns, wind stress, SLR, population density, and natural habitats. Our analysis covered a 30-year period (1992–2022) and revealed that while Florida’s northwest coast has a moderate level of exposure, it is highly vulnerable. Similarly, southeastern Florida, including its biggest city, Miami, is also highly vulnerable to climate change and land subsidence. Validation of the InVEST model with machine learning (ML) confirmed its effectiveness in evaluating coastal exposure in various regions. Our results highlighted the importance of natural ecosystems like mangroves and seagrasses in mitigating ecological risks. We also pinpointed the counties most at risk along Florida’s coast for focused management efforts and noted dangers to the Everglades, such as saltwater intrusion and the transition of freshwater marshes into mangrove creeks. The study advocates for incorporating “Green-gray” infrastructure, which combines the restoration of natural ecosystems with traditional engineering measures like seawalls, to improve long-term coastal resilience and reduce risks.

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