Статья

Global, regional, and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Rachel BlackFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Marita CrossFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Lydia M HaileFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Garland T CulbrethFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Jaimie D SteinmetzFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Hailey HaginsDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaJacek A KopecDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaPeter BrooksFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Anthony D. WoolfInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthKanyin Liane OngDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaDeborah Kopansky-GilesDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaKarsten E DreinhoeferDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaNeil BetteridgeFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Amirali AaliFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Mitra AbbasifardFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Mohsen Abbasi‐KangevariFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Ame Mehadi AbdurehmanFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Aidin AbediDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaHassan AbidiInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthRichard Gyan AboagyeDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaHassan AbolhassaniDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaEman Abu‐GharbiehInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthAhmed Abu‐ZaidInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthKidist AdamuFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Isaac Yeboah AddoDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaMiracle Ayomikun AdesinaFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah AdnaniInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthMuhammad U. AfzalInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthAyman AhmedDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaJanardhana P AithalaDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaMeisam AkhlaghdoustInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthAstawus AlemayehuInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthSaba AlvandFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Nelson J Alvis-ZakzukInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthHubert AmuFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Benny AntonyInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthJalal ArablooFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Aleksandr Y. AravkinDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaJudie ArulappanDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaTahira AshrafInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthSeyyed Shamsadin AthariInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthSina AzadnajafabadDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaAlaa BadawiDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaNayereh BaghcheghiDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaAtif Amin BaigDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaAsaminew Birhanu BaltaFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Maciej BanachDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaPalash Chandra BanikInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthAmadou BarrowFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Azadeh BashiriDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaLindsay BearneDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaAlehegn BekeleDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaIsabela M. BenseñorFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Alemshet Yirga BerhieInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthAkshaya Srikanth BhagavathulaFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Pankaj BhardwajInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthAjay Nagesh BhatInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthVijayalakshmi S BhojarajaInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthSaeid BitarafFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Belay Boda Abule BodichaFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,João Silva BotelhoInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthAndrew M. BriggsInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthRachelle BuchbinderInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthCarlos A Castañeda-OrjuelaDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaPeriklis CharalampousFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Vijay Kumar ChattuDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaKaleb CoberlyDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaNatália MartinsInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthOmid DadrasInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthXiaochen DaiDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaKatie de LucaInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthFikadu Nugusu DessalegnFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Gashaw DessieFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Meghnath DhimalInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthLankamo Ena DigesaDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaMengistie DiressFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Paul Narh DokuHisham Atan EdinurDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaMichael EkholuenetaleFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Muhammed ElhadiDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaYasser M. El‐SherbinyInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthFarshid EtaeeDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaRana EzzeddiniDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaShahriar FaghaniDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaIrina FilipFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Florian FischerInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthTakeshi FukumotoInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthBalasankar GanesanFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Mathewos Alemu GebremichaelDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaUrge GeremaDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaMotuma Erena GetachewDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaAhmad GhashghaeeDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaTiffany K. GillInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthBhawna GuptaInstitute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal HealthSapna GuptaFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Veer Bala GuptaDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaVivek GuptaFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney,Rabih HalwaniDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaMd. Abdul HannanDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, AustraliaShafiul HaqueDepartment of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards 2065, NSW, Australia

2023en

ABI

Аннотация

Background: Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disease associated with disability and premature death. Up-to-date estimates of the burden of rheumatoid arthritis are required for health-care planning, resource allocation, and prevention. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we provide updated estimates of the prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis and its associated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age, sex, year, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050. Methods: Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using Bayesian meta-regression models and data from population-based studies and medical claims data (98 prevalence and 25 incidence studies). Mortality was estimated from vital registration data with the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm). Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated with use of standard GBD lifetables, and years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence, a meta-analysed distribution of rheumatoid arthritis severity, and disability weights. DALYs were calculated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Smoking was the only risk factor analysed. Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was forecast to 2050 by logistic regression with Socio-Demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by projected population estimates. Findings: In 2020, an estimated 17·6 million (95% uncertainty interval 15·8-20·3) people had rheumatoid arthritis worldwide. The age-standardised global prevalence rate was 208·8 cases (186·8-241·1) per 100 000 population, representing a 14·1% (12·7-15·4) increase since 1990. Prevalence was higher in females (age-standardised female-to-male prevalence ratio 2·45 [2·40-2·47]). The age-standardised death rate was 0·47 (0·41-0·54) per 100 000 population (38 300 global deaths [33 500-44 000]), a 23·8% (17·5-29·3) decrease from 1990 to 2020. The 2020 DALY count was 3 060 000 (2 320 000-3 860 000), with an age-standardised DALY rate of 36·4 (27·6-45·9) per 100 000 population. YLDs accounted for 76·4% (68·3-81·0) of DALYs. Smoking risk attribution for rheumatoid arthritis DALYs was 7·1% (3·6-10·3). We forecast that 31·7 million (25·8-39·0) individuals will be living with rheumatoid arthritis worldwide by 2050. Interpretation: Rheumatoid arthritis mortality has decreased globally over the past three decades. Global age-standardised prevalence rate and YLDs have increased over the same period, and the number of cases is projected to continue to increase to the year 2050. Improved access to early diagnosis and treatment of rheumatoid arthritis globally is required to reduce the future burden of the disease. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.

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Идентификаторы

DOI: 10.1016/s2665-9913(23)00211-4

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