Статья

Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth

Ariel Ortiz-BobeaCharles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USAToby R. AultDepartment of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USACarlos M. CarrilloDepartment of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USARobert G. ChambersDepartment of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Maryland – College Park, College Park, MD, USADavid B. LobellDepartment of Earth System Science and Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA

ABI

Аннотация

Abstract Agricultural research has fostered productivity growth, but the historical influence of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) on that growth has not been quantified. We develop a robust econometric model of weather effects on global agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) and combine this model with counterfactual climate scenarios to evaluate impacts of past climate trends on TFP. Our baseline model indicates that ACC has reduced global agricultural TFP by about 21% since 1961, a slowdown that is equivalent to losing the last 7 years of productivity growth. The effect is substantially more severe (a reduction of ~26–34%) in warmer regions such as Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. We also find that global agriculture has grown more vulnerable to ongoing climate change.

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