Статья

Cost increase in the electricity supply to achieve carbon neutrality in China

Zhenyu ZhuoDepartment of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, ChinaErshun DuInstitute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, ChinaNing ZhangDepartment of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China. [email protected]Chris NielsenHarvard-China Project on Energy, Economy and Environment, John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USAXi LuInstitute for Carbon Neutrality, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, ChinaJinyu XiaoJiawei WuChongqing KangDepartment of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China. [email protected]

2022en

ABI

Аннотация

The Chinese government has set long-term carbon neutrality and renewable energy (RE) development goals for the power sector. Despite a precipitous decline in the costs of RE technologies, the external costs of renewable intermittency and the massive investments in new RE capacities would increase electricity costs. Here, we develop a power system expansion model to comprehensively evaluate changes in the electricity supply costs over a 30-year transition to carbon neutrality. RE supply curves, operating security constraints, and the characteristics of various generation units are modelled in detail to assess the cost variations accurately. According to our results, approximately 5.8 TW of wind and solar photovoltaic capacity would be required to achieve carbon neutrality in the power system by 2050. The electricity supply costs would increase by 9.6 CNY¢/kWh. The major cost shift would result from the substantial investments in RE capacities, flexible generation resources, and network expansion.

Перевод пока недоступен

Идентификаторы

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30747-0

Цитирования и источники

Цитирований: 2Использованных источников: 0

Показатели — AkademScholar