Препринт

Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases in Italy and estimates of the reproductive numbers one month into the epidemic

Flavia RiccardoIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, ItalyMarco AjelliBruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, ItalyXanthi AndrianouCyprus University of Technology, Limassol, CyprusAntonino BellaIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, ItalyMartina Del MansoIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, ItalyMassimo FabianiIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, ItalyStefania BellinoIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, ItalyStefano BorosIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, ItalyAlberto Mateo‐UrdialesIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, ItalyValentina MarzianoBruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, ItalyMaria Cristina RotaIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, ItalyAntonietta FiliaIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, ItalyFortunato D’AnconaIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, ItalyAndrea SidduIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, ItalyOrnella PunzoIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, ItalyFilippo TrentiniBruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, ItalyGiorgio GuzzettaBruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, ItalyPiero PolettiBruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, ItalyPaola StefanelliIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, ItalyMaria Rita CastrucciIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, ItalyAlessandra CiervoIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, ItalyCorrado Di BenedettoIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, ItalyMarco TallonIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, ItalyAndrea PiccioliIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, ItalySilvio BrusaferroIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, ItalyGiovanni RezzaIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, ItalyStefano MerlerBruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, ItalyPatrizio PezzottiIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italyfor the COVID-19 working group

2020en

ABI

Аннотация

SUMMARY Background In February 2020, a locally-acquired COVID-19 case was detected in Lombardia, Italy. This was the first signal of ongoing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the country. The outbreak rapidly escalated to a national level epidemic, amid the WHO declaration of a pandemic. Methods We analysed data from the national case-based integrated surveillance system of all RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 infections as of March 24 th 2020, collected from all Italian regions and autonomous provinces. Here we provide a descriptive epidemiological summary on the first 62,843 COVID-19 cases in Italy as well as estimates of the basic and net reproductive numbers by region. Findings Of the 62,843 cases of COVID-19 analysed, 71.6% were reported from three Regions (Lombardia, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna). All cases reported after February 20 th were locally acquired. Estimates of R0 varied between 2.5 (95%CI: 2.18-2.83) in Toscana and 3 (95%CI: 2.68-3.33) in Lazio, with epidemic doubling time of 3.2 days (95%CI: 2.3-5.2) and 2.9 days (95%CI: 2.2-4.3), respectively. The net reproduction number showed a decreasing trend starting around February 20-25, 2020 in Northern regions. Notably, 5,760 cases were reported among health care workers. Of the 5,541 reported COVID-19 associated deaths, 49% occurred in people aged 80 years or above with an overall crude CFR of 8.8%. Male sex and age were independent risk factors for COVID-19 death. Interpretation The COVID-19 infection in Italy emerged with a clustering onset similar to the one described in Wuhan, China and likewise showed worse outcomes in older males with comorbidities. Initial R0 at 2.96 in Lombardia, explains the high case-load and rapid geographical spread observed. Overall Rt in Italian regions is currently decreasing albeit with large diversities across the country, supporting the importance of combined non-pharmacological control measures. Funding routine institutional funding was used to perform this work.

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Идентификаторы

DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.08.20056861

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Цитирований: 2Использованных источников: 0

Показатели — AkademScholar