Star Wars: The Empirics Strike Back
Abel BrodeurUniversity of Ottawa, 120 University, Social Sciences Building, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1N 6N5 (e-mail: )Mathias LéBanque de France, Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution (ACPR), and Paris School of Economics. Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution, 61 rue Taitbout, 75009 Paris, France (e-mail: )Marc SangnierChemin du Château Lafarge 13290 Les Milles, France, Aix-Marseille School of Economics Le Group ement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille (GREQAM), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Ecole des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) (e-mail: )Yanos ZylberbergSchool of Economics Finance and Management, University of Bristol. University of Bristol, Priory Road Complex, BS81TU Bristol (e-mail: )
2015en
ABI
Аннотация
Using 50,000 tests published in the AER, JPE, and QJE, we identify a residual in the distribution of tests that cannot be explained solely by journals favoring rejection of the null hypothesis. We observe a two-humped camel shape with missing p-values between 0.25 and 0.10 that can be retrieved just after the 0.05 threshold and represent 10–20 percent of marginally rejected tests. Our interpretation is that researchers inflate the value of just-rejected tests by choosing “significant” specifications. We propose a method to measure this residual and describe how it varies by article and author characteristics. (JEL A11, C13)
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