Статья

Increase in crop losses to insect pests in a warming climate

Curtis DeutschDepartment of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USAJoshua J. TewksburyDepartment of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303, USAMichelle TigchelaarDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USADavid S. BattistiDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USAScott C. MerrillDepartment of Plant and Soil Science, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405, USARaymond B. HueyDepartment of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USARosamond L. NaylorDepartment of Earth System Science and the Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA

2018en

ABI

Аннотация

Insect pests substantially reduce yields of three staple grains-rice, maize, and wheat-but models assessing the agricultural impacts of global warming rarely consider crop losses to insects. We use established relationships between temperature and the population growth and metabolic rates of insects to estimate how and where climate warming will augment losses of rice, maize, and wheat to insects. Global yield losses of these grains are projected to increase by 10 to 25% per degree of global mean surface warming. Crop losses will be most acute in areas where warming increases both population growth and metabolic rates of insects. These conditions are centered primarily in temperate regions, where most grain is produced.

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Идентификаторы

DOI: 10.1126/science.aat3466

Цитирования и источники

Цитирований: 3Использованных источников: 0

Показатели — AkademScholar