Статья

Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015

Aaron J. CohenHealth Effects Institute, Boston, MA, USA. Electronic address: [email protected]Michael BräuerUniversity of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, CanadaRichard BurnettHealth Canada, Ottawa, ON, CanadaH Ross AndersonSt George's, University of London, London, UKJoseph FrostadInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USAKara EstepInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USAKalpana BalakrishnanSri Ramachandra University, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, IndiaBert BrunekreefUniversity of Utrecht, Utrecht, NetherlandsLalit DandonaInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA; Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, IndiaRakhi DandonaPublic Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, IndiaValery L. FeiginAuckland University of Technology, Auckland, New ZealandGreg FreedmanInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USABryan HubbellUnited States Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USAAmelia JoblingUniversity of Bath, Bath, UKHaidong KanFudan University, Yangpu Qu, Shanghai, ChinaLuke D. KnibbsUniversity of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD, AustraliaYang LiuEmory University, Atlanta, GA, USARandall V. MartinDalhousie University, Halifax, NS, CanadaLídia MorawskaQueensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, AustraliaC Arden PopeBrigham Young University, Provo, UT, USAHwashin Hyun ShinHealth Canada, Ottawa, ON, CanadaKurt StraifInternational Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, FranceGavin ShaddickUniversity of Bath, Bath, UKMatthew L. ThomasUniversity of Bath, Bath, UKRita Van DingenenEuropean Commission, Brussels, BelgiumAaron van DonkelaarDalhousie University, Halifax, NS, CanadaTheo VosInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USAChristopher J L MurrayInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USAMohammad H. ForouzanfarInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA

2017en

ABI

Аннотация

BackgroundExposure to ambient air pollution increases morbidity and mortality, and is a leading contributor to global disease burden. We explored spatial and temporal trends in mortality and burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from 1990 to 2015 at global, regional, and country levels.MethodsWe estimated global population-weighted mean concentrations of particle mass with aerodynamic diameter less than 2·5 μm (PM2·5) and ozone at an approximate 11 km × 11 km resolution with satellite-based estimates, chemical transport models, and ground-level measurements. Using integrated exposure–response functions for each cause of death, we estimated the relative risk of mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and lower respiratory infections from epidemiological studies using non-linear exposure–response functions spanning the global range of exposure.FindingsAmbient PM2·5 was the fifth-ranking mortality risk factor in 2015. Exposure to PM2·5 caused 4·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 million to 4·8 million) deaths and 103·1 million (90·8 million 115·1 million) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2015, representing 7·6% of total global deaths and 4·2% of global DALYs, 59% of these in east and south Asia. Deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 increased from 3·5 million (95% UI 3·0 million to 4·0 million) in 1990 to 4·2 million (3·7 million to 4·8 million) in 2015. Exposure to ozone caused an additional 254 000 (95% UI 97 000–422 000) deaths and a loss of 4·1 million (1·6 million to 6·8 million) DALYs from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 2015.InterpretationAmbient air pollution contributed substantially to the global burden of disease in 2015, which increased over the past 25 years, due to population ageing, changes in non-communicable disease rates, and increasing air pollution in low-income and middle-income countries. Modest reductions in burden will occur in the most polluted countries unless PM2·5 values are decreased substantially, but there is potential for substantial health benefits from exposure reduction.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Health Effects Institute.

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Идентификаторы

DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)30505-6

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Цитирований: 6Использованных источников: 0

Показатели — AkademScholar