Selection bias in dynamically measured supermassive black hole samples: consequences for pulsar timing arrays

Abstract Supermassive black hole–host galaxy relations are key to the computation of the expected gravitational wave background (GWB) in the pulsar timing array (PTA) frequency band. It has been recently pointed out that standard relations adopted in GWB computations are in fact biased-high. We show that when this selection bias is taken into account, the expected GWB in the PTA band is a factor of about 3 smaller than previously estimated. Compared to other scaling relations recently published in the literature, the median amplitude of the signal at f = 1 yr−1 drops from 1.3 × 10−15 to 4 × 10−16. Although this solves any potential tension between theoretical predictions and recent PTA limits without invoking other dynamical effects (such as stalling, eccentricity or strong coupling with the galactic environment), it also makes the GWB detection more challenging.

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