Active faults of the northern Tien Shan: tectonophysical zoning of seismic risk

Abstract This study continues the work by Mikhail Gzovsky on geological (tectonophysical) criteria for seismic risk. It is suggested to perform seismic-risk zoning according to parameters of normal and shear stresses on fault planes converted from results of tectonophysical stress reconstructions. The approach requires the knowledge of both dip and strike of the respective fault segments. Slip geometry is estimated from stress tensor, assuming that it is directed along shear stress. The suggested approach is applied to faults in the northern Tien Shan, and the current stress parameters are reconstructed using source mechanisms of catalogued earthquakes recorded by the KNET seismological network of the RAS Science Station in Bishkek. Stress modeling is performed by the method of cataclastic analysis providing constraints on stress ellipsoids, as well as on relations between the spherical and deviatoric components of the stress tensor. Plotted on the Mohr diagram, the fault stress points allow estimating whether the respective fault segments are close to the critical state (brittle failure). The suggested seismic-risk zoning of faults in the northern Tien Shan reveals up to 25 km long hazardous fault segments.

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