Статья

Global estimates of mortality associated with long-term exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter

Richard T. BurnettPopulation Studies Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0K9, Canada;Hong ChenDepartment of Environmental and Occupational Health, Public Health Ontario, Toronto, ON M5G 1V2, Canada;Mieczysław SzyszkowiczPopulation Studies Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0K9, Canada;Neal FannRisk and Benefits Group, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460;Bryan HubbellOffice of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460;C. Arden PopeDepartment of Economics, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT 84602;Joshua S. ApteDepartment of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712;Michael BräuerSchool of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z3, Canada;Aaron CohenHealth Effects Institute, Boston, MA 02110-1817;Scott WeichenthalDepartment of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, QC H3A 0G4, Canada;Jay S. CogginsDepartment of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455;Qian DiDepartment of Biostatistics, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115;Bert BrunekreefInstitute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Universiteit Utrecht, 3512 JE Utrecht, The Netherlands;Joseph FrostadInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195;Stephen S LimInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195;Haidong KanSchool of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China;Katherine WalkerHealth Effects Institute, Boston, MA 02110-1817;George D. ThurstonEnvironmental Medicine and Population Health, Program in Human Exposures and Health Effects, New York University School of Medicine, New York, NY 10016;Richard B. HayesDepartment of Population Health, NYU Langone Medical Center, New York, NY 10016;Chris C. LimDepartment of Environmental Medicine, New York University School of Medicine, New York, NY 10016;Michelle C. TurnerISGlobal, Barcelona Institute for Global Health, 08036 Barcelona, Spain;Michael JerrettDepartment of Environmental Health Sciences, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095;Daniel KrewskiMcLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada;Susan M. GapsturEpidemiology Research Program, American Cancer Society, Inc., Atlanta, GA 30303;W. Ryan DiverEpidemiology Research Program, American Cancer Society, Inc., Atlanta, GA 30303;Bart OstroDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, CA 95616;Debbie GoldbergCancer Prevention Institute of California, Fremont, CA 94538;Dan L. CrouseDepartment of Sociology, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB E3B 5A3, Canada;Randall V. MartinDepartment of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada;Paul A. PetersDepartment of Geography and Environment, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada;Lauren PinaultHealth Analysis Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0T6, Canada;Michael TjepkemaHealth Analysis Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0T6, Canada;Aaron van DonkelaarDepartment of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada;Paul J. VilleneuveDepartment of Health Sciences, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada;Anthony B. MillerDalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5T 3M7, Canada;Peng YinNational Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China;Maigeng ZhouNational Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China;Lijun WangNational Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China;Nicole JanssenNational Institute for Public Health and the Environment, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands;Marten MarraNational Institute for Public Health and the Environment, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands;Richard AtkinsonMRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, St. George’s, University of London, London SW17 0RE, United Kingdom;Hilda TsangSchool of Public Health, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China;TQ ThachSchool of Public Health, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China;John B. CannonDepartment of Economics, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT 84602;Ryan AllenDepartment of Economics, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT 84602;Jaime E. HartDepartment of Environmental Health, Harvard C.T. Channing School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02115;Francine LadenDepartment of Environmental Health, Harvard C.T. Channing School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02115;Giulia CesaroniAzienda Sanitaria Locale Roma 3Francesco ForastiereDepartment of Epidemiology, Regional Health Service, ASL Roma 1, 00147 Rome, Italy;Gudrun WeinmayrInstitute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry, Ulm University, 89081 Ulm, Germany;Andrea JaenschInstitute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry, Ulm University, 89081 Ulm, Germany;Gabriele NagelInstitute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry, Ulm University, 89081 Ulm, Germany;Hans ConcinJoseph V. Spadaro

2018en

ABI

Аннотация

Exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is a major global health concern. Quantitative estimates of attributable mortality are based on disease-specific hazard ratio models that incorporate risk information from multiple PM 2.5 sources (outdoor and indoor air pollution from use of solid fuels and secondhand and active smoking), requiring assumptions about equivalent exposure and toxicity. We relax these contentious assumptions by constructing a PM 2.5 -mortality hazard ratio function based only on cohort studies of outdoor air pollution that covers the global exposure range. We modeled the shape of the association between PM 2.5 and nonaccidental mortality using data from 41 cohorts from 16 countries—the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). We then constructed GEMMs for five specific causes of death examined by the global burden of disease (GBD). The GEMM predicts 8.9 million [95% confidence interval (CI): 7.5–10.3] deaths in 2015, a figure 30% larger than that predicted by the sum of deaths among the five specific causes (6.9; 95% CI: 4.9–8.5) and 120% larger than the risk function used in the GBD (4.0; 95% CI: 3.3–4.8). Differences between the GEMM and GBD risk functions are larger for a 20% reduction in concentrations, with the GEMM predicting 220% higher excess deaths. These results suggest that PM 2.5 exposure may be related to additional causes of death than the five considered by the GBD and that incorporation of risk information from other, nonoutdoor, particle sources leads to underestimation of disease burden, especially at higher concentrations.

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Идентификаторы

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1803222115

Цитирования и источники

Цитирований: 2Использованных источников: 0

Показатели — AkademScholar