Статья

Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters

David R. RounceDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USARegine HockDepartment of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, NorwayFabien MaussionDepartment of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, AustriaRomain HugonnetLEGOS, Université de Toulouse, CNES, CNRS, IRD, UPS, Toulouse, FranceWilliam KochtitzkyDepartment of Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, CanadaMatthias HussDepartment of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, SwitzerlandÉtienne BerthierLEGOS, Université de Toulouse, CNES, CNRS, IRD, UPS, Toulouse, FranceDouglas BrinkerhoffDepartment of Computer Science, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USALoris CompagnoLaboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zürich, Zurich, SwitzerlandLuke CoplandDepartment of Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, CanadaDaniel FarinottiLaboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zürich, Zurich, SwitzerlandBrian MenounosGeography Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, BC, CanadaRobert McNabbSchool of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Ulster University, Coleraine, UK

2023en

ABI

Аннотация

Glacier mass loss affects sea level rise, water resources, and natural hazards. We present global glacier projections, excluding the ice sheets, for shared socioeconomic pathways calibrated with data for each glacier. Glaciers are projected to lose 26 ± 6% (+1.5°C) to 41 ± 11% (+4°C) of their mass by 2100, relative to 2015, for global temperature change scenarios. This corresponds to 90 ± 26 to 154 ± 44 millimeters sea level equivalent and will cause 49 ± 9 to 83 ± 7% of glaciers to disappear. Mass loss is linearly related to temperature increase and thus reductions in temperature increase reduce mass loss. Based on climate pledges from the Conference of the Parties (COP26), global mean temperature is projected to increase by +2.7°C, which would lead to a sea level contribution of 115 ± 40 millimeters and cause widespread deglaciation in most mid-latitude regions by 2100.

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Идентификаторы

DOI: 10.1126/science.abo1324

Цитирования и источники

Цитирований: 2Использованных источников: 0

Показатели — AkademScholar