Russian Oil and Gas Budget Revenues in 2015: Estimation and Risk

The article analyzes the impact of changes at the markets of oil and gas in comparison to oil and gas revenues of the Russian federal budget in 2015. The most significant risk of fiscal policy in the terms of anti-Russian sanctions is the high sensitivity of revenues to the external volatility. About a third of all revenues of the budget system and about half of federal budget revenues comprise revenues from oil and gas sector. They are dependent on unpredictable fluctuations of the stock commodity quotations, which affect the rates of the oil and gas taxes (and duties). The article presents the model and the calculations, which predict the maximum reduction in oil and gas revenues in 2015 in the volume of 874 billion rubles.

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