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Suppression of COVID-19 outbreak in the municipality of Vo’, Italy

Enrico LavezzoUniversita’ degli Studi di Padova, Via Otto Febbraio 2, Padova, ItalyElisa FranchinUniversita’ degli Studi di Padova, Via Otto Febbraio 2, Padova, ItalyConstanze CiavarellaMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UKGina Cuomo-DannenburgMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UKLuisa BarzonUniversita’ degli Studi di Padova, Via Otto Febbraio 2, Padova, ItalyClaudia Del VecchioUniversita’ degli Studi di Padova, Via Otto Febbraio 2, Padova, ItalyLucía RossiAzienda Ospedale Padova, Via Giustiniani 1, Padova, ItalyRiccardo ManganelliUniversita’ degli Studi di Padova, Via Otto Febbraio 2, Padova, ItalyArianna LoregianUniversita’ degli Studi di Padova, Via Otto Febbraio 2, Padova, ItalyNicolò NavarinUniversita’ degli Studi di Padova, Via Otto Febbraio 2, Padova, ItalyDavide AbateUniversita’ degli Studi di Padova, Via Otto Febbraio 2, Padova, ItalyManuela SciroAzienda Ospedale Padova, Via Giustiniani 1, Padova, ItalyStefano MeriglianoUniversita’ degli Studi di Padova, Via Otto Febbraio 2, Padova, ItalyEttore DecanaleAzienda Ospedale Padova, Via Giustiniani 1, Padova, ItalyMaria Cristina VanuzzoAzienda Ospedale Padova, Via Giustiniani 1, Padova, ItalyFrancesca SaluzzoUniversita’ degli Studi di Padova, Via Otto Febbraio 2, Padova, ItalyFrancesco OneliaUniversita’ degli Studi di Padova, Via Otto Febbraio 2, Padova, ItalyMonia PacentiAzienda Ospedale Padova, Via Giustiniani 1, Padova, ItalySaverio Giuseppe ParisiUniversita’ degli Studi di Padova, Via Otto Febbraio 2, Padova, ItalyGiovanni CarrettaAzienda Ospedale Padova, Via Giustiniani 1, Padova, ItalyDaniele DonatoAzienda Ospedale Padova, Via Giustiniani 1, Padova, ItalyLuciano FlorAzienda Ospedale Padova, Via Giustiniani 1, Padova, ItalySilvia CocchioUniversita’ degli Studi di Padova, Via Otto Febbraio 2, Padova, ItalyGiulia MasiUniversita’ degli Studi di Padova, Via Otto Febbraio 2, Padova, ItalyAlessandro SperdutiUniversita’ degli Studi di Padova, Via Otto Febbraio 2, Padova, ItalyLorenzo CattarinoMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UKRenato SalvadorUniversita’ degli Studi di Padova, Via Otto Febbraio 2, Padova, ItalyKaty A. M. GaythorpeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UKAlessandra Rosalba BrazzaleUniversita’ degli Studi di Padova, Via Otto Febbraio 2, Padova, ItalyStefano ToppoUniversita’ degli Studi di Padova, Via Otto Febbraio 2, Padova, ItalyMarta TrevisanUniversita’ degli Studi di Padova, Via Otto Febbraio 2, Padova, ItalyVincenzo BaldoUniversita’ degli Studi di Padova, Via Otto Febbraio 2, Padova, ItalyChristl A. DonnellyDepartment of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UKNeil M. FergusonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UKIlaria DorigattiMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UKAndrea CrisantiImperial College London, Exhibition Road, London, UK

2020en

ABI

Аннотация

Abstract On the 21 st of February 2020 a resident of the municipality of Vo’, a small town near Padua, died of pneumonia due to SARS-CoV-2 infection 1 . This was the first COVID-19 death detected in Italy since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in the Chinese city of Wuhan, Hubei province 2 . In response, the regional authorities imposed the lockdown of the whole municipality for 14 days 3 . We collected information on the demography, clinical presentation, hospitalization, contact network and presence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in nasopharyngeal swabs for 85.9% and 71.5% of the population of Vo’ at two consecutive time points. On the first survey, which was conducted around the time the town lockdown started, we found a prevalence of infection of 2.6% (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.1-3.3%). On the second survey, which was conducted at the end of the lockdown, we found a prevalence of 1.2% (95% CI 0.8-1.8%). Notably, 43.2% (95% CI 32.2-54.7%) of the confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections detected across the two surveys were asymptomatic. The mean serial interval was 6.9 days (95% CI 2.6-13.4). We found no statistically significant difference in the viral load (as measured by genome equivalents inferred from cycle threshold data) of symptomatic versus asymptomatic infections (p-values 0.6 and 0.2 for E and RdRp genes, respectively, Exact Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test). Contact tracing of the newly infected cases and transmission chain reconstruction revealed that most new infections in the second survey were infected in the community before the lockdown or from asymptomatic infections living in the same household. This study sheds new light on the frequency of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and their infectivity (as measured by the viral load) and provides new insights into its transmission dynamics, the duration of viral load detectability and the efficacy of the implemented control measures.

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Идентификаторы

DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.17.20053157

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Цитирований: 1Использованных источников: 0

Показатели — AkademScholar