Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Eastern Uzbekistan, Central Asia

Research Article| November 14, 2017 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Eastern Uzbekistan, Central Asia A. Ischuk; A. Ischuk aInstitute of Geology, Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Academy of Sciences, 267, Ainy Street, 734063 Dushanbe, Tajikistan, [email protected] Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar L. W. Bjerrum; L. W. Bjerrum bNORSAR, P.O. Box. 53, 2027 Kjeller, Norway, [email protected]@norsar.nodNow at Rambøll, Hannemanns Allé 53, 2300 Copenhagen S, Denmark. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar M. Kamchybekov; M. Kamchybekov cInstitute of Seismology, National Academy of Sciences, 50/1 Asanbay, Bishkek 720060, Kyrgyz Republic, [email protected]@yandex.com Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar K. Abdrakhmatov; K. Abdrakhmatov cInstitute of Seismology, National Academy of Sciences, 50/1 Asanbay, Bishkek 720060, Kyrgyz Republic, [email protected]@yandex.com Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar C. Lindholm C. Lindholm bNORSAR, P.O. Box. 53, 2027 Kjeller, Norway, [email protected]@norsar.no Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information A. Ischuk aInstitute of Geology, Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Academy of Sciences, 267, Ainy Street, 734063 Dushanbe, Tajikistan, [email protected] L. W. Bjerrum bNORSAR, P.O. Box. 53, 2027 Kjeller, Norway, [email protected]@norsar.nodNow at Rambøll, Hannemanns Allé 53, 2300 Copenhagen S, Denmark. M. Kamchybekov cInstitute of Seismology, National Academy of Sciences, 50/1 Asanbay, Bishkek 720060, Kyrgyz Republic, [email protected]@yandex.com K. Abdrakhmatov cInstitute of Seismology, National Academy of Sciences, 50/1 Asanbay, Bishkek 720060, Kyrgyz Republic, [email protected]@yandex.com C. Lindholm bNORSAR, P.O. Box. 53, 2027 Kjeller, Norway, [email protected]@norsar.no Publisher: Seismological Society of America First Online: 14 Nov 2017 Online Issn: 1943-3573 Print Issn: 0037-1106 © Seismological Society of America Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2018) 108 (1): 130–144. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120160330 Article history First Online: 14 Nov 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation A. Ischuk, L. W. Bjerrum, M. Kamchybekov, K. Abdrakhmatov, C. Lindholm; Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Eastern Uzbekistan, Central Asia. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2017;; 108 (1): 130–144. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120160330 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyBulletin of the Seismological Society of America Search Advanced Search Abstract Central Asia is a region of large crustal compression due to the collision of the Eurasian and Indian plates. The significant convergence and crustal shortening is located within the Pamir and Tien Shan belts, and the deformation resulted in many Mw≥7 earthquakes throughout the region, recorded historically as well as instrumentally. Consequently, the seismic hazard in this region is of high interest.Previous hazard studies are often based on either earthquake data or geological information. Hence, seismic hazard assessments have not yet considered models combining the two types of information. In this study, we consider the existing faults together with the earthquake catalogs available for the region (from 2000 B.C. to A.D. 2016). The different types of data are combined in a probabilistic hazard assessment using a logic‐tree approach. This approach follows the recommendations of Stein and Friedrich (2014). The use of a logic‐tree approach lets us quantify the seismic hazard in the region while considering the epistemic uncertainty in the computations. The seismic hazard is presented in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration for different periods, all shown on maps for a return period of 475 yrs (10% exceedance probability in 50 yrs). The hazard curves and uniform hazard spectra are calculated for the four capitals in the region: Almaty, Bishkek, Dushanbe, and Tashkent. The largest expected ground motions are found in southern Tien Shan and northern Pamir, where PGA is found to be in the order of 0.4g–0.47g⁠. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.

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