Статья

Global Burden of Hypertension and Systolic Blood Pressure of at Least 110 to 115 mm Hg, 1990-2015

Mohammad H. ForouzanfarInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattlePatrick LiuInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleGregory A. RothInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleMarie NgInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleStan BiryukovInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleLaurie B. MarczakInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleLily AlexanderInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleKara EstepInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleKalkidan Hassen AbateJimma University, Jimma, EthiopiaTomi AkinyemijuDepartment of Epidemiology, University of Alabama at BirminghamRaghib AliUniversity of Oxford, Oxford, United KingdomNelson Alvis‐GuzmánUniversidad de Cartagena, Cartagena de Indias, ColombiaPeter AzzopardiCentre for Adolescent Health, Parkville, Victoria, Australia7South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute, Adelaide, South Australia, AustraliaAmitava BanerjeeUniversity College London, Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research, London, United KingdomTill BärnighausenHarvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts10Wellcome Trust Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, Somkhele, Mtubatuba, KwaZulu-Natal, South AfricaArindam BasuSchool of Health Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New ZealandTolesa BekeleMadawalabu University, Bale Goba, EthiopiaDerrick BennettUniversity of Oxford, Oxford, United KingdomSibhatu BiadgilignFerrán Catalá-LópezUniversity of Valencia/INCLIVA Health Research Institute and CIBERSAM, Department of Medicine, Valencia, Spain15Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, CanadaValery L. FeiginAuckland University of Technology, National Institute for Stroke and Applied Neurosciences, Auckland, New ZealandJoão Carlos FernandesPharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics, IBILI - Institute for Biomedical Imaging and Life Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, University of Coimbra, Coimbra, PortugalFlorian FischerBielefeld University, Bielefeld, GermanyAlemseged Aregay GebruMekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia; Kilte Awlaelo-Health and Demographic Surveillance SystemPhilimon GonaUniversity of Massachusetts BostonRajeev GuptaEternal Heart Care Centre and Research Institute, Jaipur, IndiaGraeme J. HankeySchool of Medicine and Pharmacology, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia23Harry Perkins Institute of Medical Research, Nedlands, Western Australia, Australia24Western Australian Neuroscience Research Institute, Nedlands, Western Australia, AustraliaJost B. JonasRuprecht-Karls-University Heidelberg, Department of Ophthalmology, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Mannheim, GermanySuzanne E. JuddUniversity of Alabama at BirminghamYoung‐Ho KhangSeoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South KoreaArdeshir KhosraviIranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, IranYun Jin KimSouthern University College, Johor, MalaysiaRuth W KimokotiSimmons College, Boston, MassachusettsYoshihiro KokuboNational Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Department of Preventive Cardiology, Suita, Osaka, JapanDhaval KolteBrown University/Rhode Island Hospital, Providence, Rhode IslandAlan D LópezUniversity of Melbourne, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, Melbourne, QLD, AustraliaPaulo A. LotufoUniversity of São Paulo, São Paulo, BrazilReza MalekzadehTehran Universities of Medical Sciences, Digestive Disease Research Institute, Tehran, IranYohannes Adama MelakuMekelle University, School of Public Health, Mekelle, Ethiopia37The University of Adelaide, School of Medicine, Adelaide, South Australia, AustraliaGeorge A. MensahNational Institutes of Health, Center for Translation Research and Implementation Science, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, MarylandAwoke MisganawInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleAli H. MokdadInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleAndrew MoranColumbia University, New York, New YorkHaseeb NawazSouthern Illinois University, SpringfieldBruce NealThe George Institute for Global Health, Sydney, NSW, Australia42The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia43Royal Prince Alfred Hospital, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia44Imperial College London, London, United KingdomFrida NgalesoniMinistry of Health and Social Welfare, Dar es Salaam, TanzaniaTakayoshi OhkuboTeikyo University School of Medicine, Tokyo, JapanFarshad PourmalekUniversity of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, CanadaAnwar RafayRajesh KumarDavid Rojas‐RuedaISGlobal, Centre for Research in Environmental Epidemiology (CREAL), Barcelona, SpainUchechukwu K.A. SampsonNational Institutes of Health, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, MarylandItamar S SantosUniversity of São Paulo, Internal Medicine Department, São Paulo, BrazilMonika SawhneyMarshall University, Huntington, West VirginiaAletta E. SchutteHypertension in Africa Research Team (HART); South African Medical Research Council, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South AfricaSadaf G SepanlouTehran Universities of Medical Sciences, Digestive Disease Research Institute, Tehran, IranGirma Temam ShifaArba Minch University, Arba Minch, SNNPR, Ethiopia56Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, EthiopiaIvy ShiueNorthumbria University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom58University of Edinburgh, Alzheimer Scotland Dementia Research Centre, Edinburgh, United KingdomBemnet TedlaUniversity of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia; James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, AustraliaAmanda G. ThriftDepartment of Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, AustraliaMarcello TonelliUniversity of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, CanadaThomas TruelsenUniversity of Copenhagen, Department of Neurology, Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, DenmarkNikolaos TsilimparisUniversity Heart Center of Hamburg, Hamburg, GermanyKingsley Nnanna UkwajaFederal Teaching Hospital, Department of Internal Medicine, Abakaliki, NigeriaOlalekan A. UthmanUniversity of Warwick, Warwick Medical School, Coventry, United KingdomTommi VasankariUKK Institute for Health Promotion Research, Tampere, FinlandNarayanaswamy VenketasubramanianRaffles Neuroscience Centre, Raffles Hospital, Singapore, SingaporeVasily VlassovNational Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, RussiaTheo VosInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, SeattleRonny WestermanFederal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany70German National Cohort Consortium, Heidelberg, GermanyLijing L. YanGlobal Health Research Center, Duke Kunshan University, Kunshan, ChinaYuichiro YanoDepartment of Preventive Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IllinoisNaohiro YonemotoNational Center of Neurology and Psychiatry, Kodaira, JapanMaysaa El Sayed ZakiMansoura Faculty of Medicine, Mansoura, EgyptChristopher J L MurrayInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle

2017en

ABI

Аннотация

Importance: Elevated systolic blood (SBP) pressure is a leading global health risk. Quantifying the levels of SBP is important to guide prevention policies and interventions. Objective: To estimate the association between SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher and the burden of different causes of death and disability by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015. Design: A comparative risk assessment of health loss related to SBP. Estimated distribution of SBP was based on 844 studies from 154 countries (published 1980-2015) of 8.69 million participants. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression was used to generate estimates of mean SBP and adjusted variance for each age, sex, country, and year. Diseases with sufficient evidence for a causal relationship with high SBP (eg, ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke) were included in the primary analysis. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mean SBP level, cause-specific deaths, and health burden related to SBP (≥110-115 mm Hg and also ≥140 mm Hg) by age, sex, country, and year. Results: Between 1990-2015, the rate of SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 73 119 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 67 949-78 241) to 81 373 (95% UI, 76 814-85 770) per 100 000, and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 17 307 (95% UI, 17 117-17 492) to 20 526 (95% UI, 20 283-20 746) per 100 000. The estimated annual death rate per 100 000 associated with SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 135.6 (95% UI, 122.4-148.1) to 145.2 (95% UI 130.3-159.9) and the rate for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 97.9 (95% UI, 87.5-108.1) to 106.3 (95% UI, 94.6-118.1). For loss of DALYs associated with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 95.9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 87.0-104.9 million) to 143.0 million (95% UI, 130.2-157.0 million) [corrected], and for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 5.2 million (95% UI, 4.6-5.7 million) to 7.8 million (95% UI, 7.0-8.7 million). The largest numbers of SBP-related deaths were caused by ischemic heart disease (4.9 million [95% UI, 4.0-5.7 million]; 54.5%), hemorrhagic stroke (2.0 million [95% UI, 1.6-2.3 million]; 58.3%), and ischemic stroke (1.5 million [95% UI, 1.2-1.8 million]; 50.0%). In 2015, China, India, Russia, Indonesia, and the United States accounted for more than half of the global DALYs related to SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg. Conclusions and Relevance: In international surveys, although there is uncertainty in some estimates, the rate of elevated SBP (≥110-115 and ≥140 mm Hg) increased substantially between 1990 and 2015, and DALYs and deaths associated with elevated SBP also increased. Projections based on this sample suggest that in 2015, an estimated 3.5 billion adults had SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and 874 million adults had SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher.

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Идентификаторы

DOI: 10.1001/jama.2016.19043

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Цитирований: 2Использованных источников: 0

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