Studying long term relationship between carbon Emissions, Soil, and climate Change: Insights from a global Earth modeling Framework

The persistent increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, notably carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O), since the mid-20th century has been a key driver of significant climate alterations. This study investigates the complex feedback mechanisms that both influence and are influenced by global climate dynamics, soil processes, and GHG emissions. Our statistical approach incorporates correlation measures, highlighting the limitations of such analyses, namely their inability to confirm causality, sensitivity to outliers, and the exclusive capture of linear relationships. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models reveal spatial variations in the relationship between environmental factors and GHGs, while Path Analysis aids in delineating direct and indirect influences among variables. The research pinpoints significant spatial heterogeneity in the impacts of economic and environmental factors on GHGs, underscoring the necessity of localized strategies for climate change mitigation and sustainable land management. This study also identifies potential threats to agricultural productivity due to soil degradation, which hinder climate adaptation efforts. Our findings advocate for a concerted global response to reduce GHG emissions and address the challenges posed by the interplay of climate change, soil dynamics, and GHG emissions.

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