The deterioration of the ecological situation in central Asia: Causes and possible consequences

THE ECOLOGICAL AND SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC PROCESSES occurring in the region of the Aral Sea today give every reason to call the area an ecological catastrophe zone. In the last 30 years the Aral Sea's water level has fallen by 14 metres; its surface area has suffered a reduction of 40%; the volume of its water mass has dropped by 65%; and its average salinity has increased 2.5 times.1 The Aral Sea previously yielded 7% of all fish caught in the former USSR; now it has no value for the fishing industry whatsoever. In many places the sea has retreated by 70-100 kilometres from its previous shores, leaving ports stranded far from its waters; navigation has almost entirely ceased.2 The desiccation of the Aral Sea has left tens of thousands of people without work. The area of land left uncovered by the sea now exceeds 2 million hectares, and has become a breeding ground for salt storms. There has been a marked deterioration in the climate, making productive agriculture impossible in the coastal regions. The Aral Sea region is divided roughly equally between two Central Asian states-Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan-and has a population of approximately 3 million. Worst off of all are the inhabitants of the autonomous republic of Karakalpakia, which is a part of Uzbekistan. In the words of a Karakalpak parliamentary deputy, 'what the Karakalpak people are going through today is nothing short of a tragedy. Seventy per cent of the population are ill; the republic has not a single maternity hospital; there is a shortage of housing, a lack of drinkable drinking water; as a result of malnutrition, women cannot feed their baby children...No other area of the country (the former USSR) has a situation like this-this is an ecological catastrophe'.3 The unrestrained use of mineral fertilisers on the soil has led to a situation in which

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