Low‐frequency nonlinearity and regime behavior in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical atmosphere

Abstract The extratropical atmosphere is characterized by robust circulations which have time scales longer than that associated with developing baroclinic systems but shorter than a season. Such low‐frequency variability is governed to a large extent by nonlinear dynamics and, hence, is chaotic. A useful aspect of this low‐frequency circulation is that it can often be described by just a few quasi‐stationary regime states, broadly defined as recurrent or persistent large‐scale structures, that exert a significant impact on the probability of experiencing extreme surface weather conditions. We review a variety of techniques for identifying circulation regimes from reanalysis and numerical model output. While various techniques often yield similar regime circulation patterns, they offer different perspectives on the regimes. The regimes themselves are manifest in planetary scale patterns. They affect the structure of synoptic scale patterns. Extratropical flow regimes have been identified in simplified atmospheric models and comprehensive coupled climate models and in reanalysis data sets. It is an ongoing challenge to accurately model these regime states, and high horizontal resolutions are often needed to accurately reproduce them. The regime paradigm helps to understand the response to external forcing on a variety of time scales, has been helpful in categorizing a large number of weather types and their effect on local conditions, and is useful in downscaling. Despite their usefulness, there is a debate on the “nonequivocal” and systematic existence of these nonlinear circulation regimes. We review our current understanding of the nonlinear and regime paradigms and suggest future research.

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