A Simulation Model of Locust Migratory Behaviour

(1) A computer simulation model was developed for a migration of Schistocerca gregaria: the locusts were reported to have reached the United Kingdom in 1954 and were described by Rainey (1963) who concluded from meteorological evidence and current locust reports that they originated in N.W. Africa. (2) The model follows the same basic assumptions that, whilst migratory motion in locusts is maintained behaviourally, displacement is attributed almost entirely to transport in wind systems (Rainey 1951). (3) Laboratory estimates of flight performance from the literature were found to be inadequate to define the distribution of performance in the field. (4) A dummy variable, equivalent to ground speed, was used to compare the effects of different distributions of flight performance. (5) Response surfaces were defined for combinations of parameters and were found to vary qualitatively and quantitatively with different distributions of flight performance. (6) The effect of down-wind orientation was investigated and found to affect the flight performance but in no simple way.

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