Global, regional, and national disease burden estimates of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in young children in 2015: a systematic review and modelling study
Ting ShiCentre for Global Health Research, Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, UKDavid McAllisterInstitute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Scotland, UKKatherine L. O’BrienDepartment of International Health, International Vaccine Access Center, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MS, USAEric A. F. SimõesUniversity of Colorado, Aurora, CO, USAShabir A. MadhiMedical Research Council: Respiratory and Meningeal Pathogens Research Unit, School of Pathology, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; Department of Science and Technology/National Research Foundation: Vaccine Preventable Diseases, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South AfricaBradford D. GessnerAgence de Medecine Preventive, Paris, FranceFernando P. PolackFundacion INFANT, Buenos Aires, ArgentinaEvelyn BalsellsCentre for Global Health Research, Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, UKSozinho AcácioCentro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça (CISM), Maputo, MozambiqueClaudia AguayoEpidemiology Department, Ministry of Health, ChileIssifou AlassaniMinistry of Health, TogoAsad AliDepartment of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, PakistanMartín AntonioMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia, Basse, The GambiaShally AwasthiDepartment of Pediatrics, King George's Medical University, Lucknow (UP), IndiaJuliet O. AworiKenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Centre for Geographic Medicine Research-Coast, Kilifi, KenyaEduardo Azziz‐BaumgartnerInternational Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USAHenry C. BaggettGlobal Disease Detection Center, Thailand Ministry of Public Health-US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Collaboration, Nonthaburi, Thailand; Division of Global Health Protection, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USAVicky L. BaillieMedical Research Council: Respiratory and Meningeal Pathogens Research Unit, School of Pathology, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South AfricaÁngel BalmasedaAlfredo BarahonaHospital Materno Infantil Jose Domingo de Obaldia, Ciudad De David, Chiriqui, PanamaSudha BasnetCenter for International Health, University of Bergen, Norway; Department of Child Health, Tribhuvan University Institute of Medicine, NepalQuique BassatCentro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça (CISM), Maputo, Mozambique; ISGlobal, Barcelona Ctr Int Health Res (CRESIB), Hospital Clínic - Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; ICREA, Pg Lluís Companys 23, 08010 Barcelona, SpainWilma BasualdoHospital General Pediátrico Niños de Acosta Ñu, Ministerio de Salud Pública y Bienestar Social, San Lorenzo, ParaguayGodfrey BigogoKenya Medical Research Institute, Centre for Global Health Research, Kisumu, KenyaLouis BontWilhelmina Children's Hospital, University Medical Center Utrecht, The NetherlandsRobert F. BreimanEmory Global Health Institute, Emory University, AT, USAW. Abdullah BrooksDepartment of International Health, International Vaccine Access Center, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MS, USA; International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, BangladeshShobha BroorAll India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, IndiaNigel BruceDepartment of Public Health and Policy, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UKDana BrudenArctic Investigations Program, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID), Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, Anchorage, AK, USAPhilippe BuchyInstitute Pasteur Cambodia, Children's Hospital Colorado, Aurora, CO, USA; GSK Vaccines Singapore, Children's Hospital Colorado, Aurora, CO, USAStuart CampbellCentre for Global Health Research, Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, UKPhyllis Carosone‐LinkDepartment of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Children's Hospital Colorado, Aurora, CO, USAMandeep ChadhaNational Institute of Virology, Pune, IndiaJames ChipetaUniversity Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, ZambiaMonidarin ChouRodolphe Merieux Laboratory, Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Health Sciences, Phnom Penh, CambodiaWilfrido ClaraCheryl CohenCentre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa; School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South AfricaElizabeth CuellarHospital San Juan de Dios, Santa Ana, Ministry of Health, El SalvadorDuc-Anh DangNational Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, VietnamBudragchaagiin Dash-YandagMaria Deloria KnollDepartment of International Health, International Vaccine Access Center, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MS, USAMukesh DheraniDepartment of Public Health and Policy, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UKTekchheng EapDepartment of Pneumology, National Pediatric Hospital, Phnom Penh, CambodiaBernard E. EbrukeMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia, Basse, The GambiaMarcela EchavarríaCentro de Educación Médica envestigaciones Clínicas "CEMIC", ArgentinaCarla Cecília de Freitas Lázaro EmediatoHealth Secretariat of the City of Belo Horizonte, BrazilRodrigo FascePublic Health Institute, ChileDaniel R. FeikinCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USAShuo FengDivision of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, ChinaÁngela GentileEpidemiology Department, Austral University and Ricardo Gutiérrez Children Hospital, ArgentinaAubree GordonDepartment of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USADoli GoswamiDepartment of International Health, International Vaccine Access Center, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MS, USA; International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, BangladeshSophie GoyetInstitute Pasteur Cambodia, Children's Hospital Colorado, Aurora, CO, USAMichelle J. GroomeMedical Research Council: Respiratory and Meningeal Pathogens Research Unit, School of Pathology, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; Department of Science and Technology/National Research Foundation: Vaccine Preventable Diseases, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South AfricaNatasha HalasaVanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USASiddhivinayak HirveNusrat HomairaInternational Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh; School of Women's and Children's Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales, NSW, AustraliaStephen R. C. HowieMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia, Basse, The Gambia; Department of Paediatrics, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand; Centre for International Health, University of Otago, Dunedin, New ZealandJorge JaraCenter for Health Studies, Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, GuatemalaImane JroundiISGlobal, Barcelona Ctr Int Health Res (CRESIB), Hospital Clínic - Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Unit of Training and Research in Public Health, School of Medicine and Pharmacy of Rabat, University Mohamed V, Rabat, MoroccoCissy B. KartasasmitaUniversity of Padjdjaran, Bandung, IndonesiaNajwa Khuri‐BulosUniversity of Jordan, Amman, JordanKaren L. KotloffDepartment of Pediatrics and Medicine, Center for Vaccine Development, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USAAnand KrishnanAll India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, IndiaRomina LibsterFundacion INFANT, Buenos Aires, Argentina; Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA; National Scientific and Technical Research Council (CONICET), Buenos Aires, ArgentinaOlga LópezMarilla LuceroResearch Institute for Tropical Medicine, Muntinlupa, PhilippinesFlorencia LuciónEpidemiology Department, Austral University and Ricardo Gutiérrez Children Hospital, ArgentinaSocorro LupisanResearch Institute for Tropical Medicine-Department of Health, PhilippinesDébora Natalia MarconeCentro de Educación Médica envestigaciones Clínicas "CEMIC", ArgentinaJohn P. McCrackenCenter for Health Studies, Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, GuatemalaMario MejíaMinistry of Public Health and Social Welfare, GuatemalaJennifer C. MoïsiAgence de Medecine Preventive, Paris, FranceJoel M. MontgomeryDivision of Global Health Protection, Center for Global Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Nairobi, KenyaDavid P. MooreMedical Research Council: Respiratory and Meningeal Pathogens Research Unit, School of Pathology, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; Department of Science and Technology/National Research Foundation: Vaccine Preventable Diseases, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South AfricaCinta MoraledaISGlobal, Barcelona Ctr Int Health Res (CRESIB), Hospital Clínic - Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, SpainJocelyn MoyesCentre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa; School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South AfricaPatrick K. MunywokiKenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Centre for Geographic Medicine Research-Coast, Kilifi, Kenya; Pwani University, Kilifi, KenyaKuswandewi MutyaraUniversity of Padjdjaran, Bandung, IndonesiaMark P. NicolDivision of Medical Microbiology, University of Cape Town and National Health Laboratory Services, South AfricaD. James NokesKenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Centre for Geographic Medicine Research-Coast, Kilifi, Kenya; School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, UKPagbajabyn NymadawaMongolian Academy of Medical Sciences, Ulaanbaatar, MongoliaMaría Tereza da Costa OliveiraHealth Secretariat of the City of Belo Horizonte, BrazilHistoshi OshitaniTohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Department of Virology, Miyagi Prefecture, JapanNitin PandeyDepartment of Pediatrics, King George's Medical University, Lucknow (UP), IndiaGláucia Paranhos‐BaccalàEmerging Pathofens Laboratory, Fondation Mérieux, Centre International de Recherche en Infectiologie (CIRI), Inserm U1111, CNRS UMR5308, ENS de Lyon, UCBL1, Lyon, FranceLia PhillipsEmory University, Rollins School of Public Health, AT, USAValentina PicotEmerging Pathofens Laboratory, Fondation Mérieux, Centre International de Recherche en Infectiologie (CIRI), Inserm U1111, CNRS UMR5308, ENS de Lyon, UCBL1, Lyon, FranceMustafizur RahmanInternational Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, BangladeshMala Rakoto‐AndrianariveloCentre d'Infectiologie Charles Mérieux (CICM), Antananarivo, MadagascarZeba RasmussenFogarty International Center Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, NIH, Bethesda, MD, USABarbara RathDepartment of Pediatrics, Charité University Medical Center, Berlin, GermanyAnnick RobinsonHôpital Femme-Mère-Enfant, Antananarivo, MadagascarCandice RomeroUnited States Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6, Callao, PeruGraciela RussomandoDepartamento de Biología Molecular y Genética, Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad Nacional de Asuncion, ParaguayVahid SalimiSchool of Public Health, Virology Department, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, IranPongpun SawatwongGlobal Disease Detection Center, Thailand Ministry of Public Health-US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Collaboration, Nonthaburi, ThailandNienke M. ScheltemaWilhelmina Children's Hospital, University Medical Center Utrecht, The NetherlandsBrunhilde SchweigerRobert Koch Institute (RKI), Berlin, Germany
2017en
ABI
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: We have previously estimated that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was associated with 22% of all episodes of (severe) acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) resulting in 55 000 to 199 000 deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2005. In the past 5 years, major research activity on RSV has yielded substantial new data from developing countries. With a considerably expanded dataset from a large international collaboration, we aimed to estimate the global incidence, hospital admission rate, and mortality from RSV-ALRI episodes in young children in 2015. METHODS: We estimated the incidence and hospital admission rate of RSV-associated ALRI (RSV-ALRI) in children younger than 5 years stratified by age and World Bank income regions from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2016, and unpublished data from 76 high quality population-based studies. We estimated the RSV-ALRI incidence for 132 developing countries using a risk factor-based model and 2015 population estimates. We estimated the in-hospital RSV-ALRI mortality by combining in-hospital case fatality ratios with hospital admission estimates from hospital-based (published and unpublished) studies. We also estimated overall RSV-ALRI mortality by identifying studies reporting monthly data for ALRI mortality in the community and RSV activity. FINDINGS: We estimated that globally in 2015, 33·1 million (uncertainty range [UR] 21·6-50·3) episodes of RSV-ALRI, resulted in about 3·2 million (2·7-3·8) hospital admissions, and 59 600 (48 000-74 500) in-hospital deaths in children younger than 5 years. In children younger than 6 months, 1·4 million (UR 1·2-1·7) hospital admissions, and 27 300 (UR 20 700-36 200) in-hospital deaths were due to RSV-ALRI. We also estimated that the overall RSV-ALRI mortality could be as high as 118 200 (UR 94 600-149 400). Incidence and mortality varied substantially from year to year in any given population. INTERPRETATION: Globally, RSV is a common cause of childhood ALRI and a major cause of hospital admissions in young children, resulting in a substantial burden on health-care services. About 45% of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to RSV-ALRI occur in children younger than 6 months. An effective maternal RSV vaccine or monoclonal antibody could have a substantial effect on disease burden in this age group. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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