Republic of Kazakhstan

In 2024, Kazakhstan's economic growth is expected to slow to 3.1 percent, mostly due to delays in expanding the Tengiz oil field, while inflation, which is still well above the authorities' target, would continue to decline. A current account deficit of 3.9 percent of GDP is projected for 2024, and the banking sector should remain sound amid easing financial conditions. In the medium-term, non-oil GDP growth would stabilize at around 3 percent, and inflation would ease gradually to reach 5 percent by 2026-27, assuming accelerated reform implementation. ` Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside and include: delayed reform implementation; oil price declines, further delays in the Tengiz field expansion, and disruptions to oil exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline; slow growth in trading partners; spillovers from the war in Ukraine and geo-economic fragmentation; and, increased social tensions. Upside risks include accelerated reform implementation, higher oil prices, and higher-than-expected foreign investment in new sectors.

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